New York Rangers Don't "Need" to Move on from Mika Zibanejad

There’s still three games remaining in which additional contributions can be made, but the 2024-25 season was a disaster for Mika Zibanejad, and it could be the first full season he’s spent in New York that he will finish with fewer than 20 goals. In fact, the last time Zibanejad failed to score 20 or more as an NHL pro was his first season on Broadway, a campaign in which he was limited to 56 games because of a broken leg, and that year he found the back of the net 14 times while adding 23 helpers for 37 total points. This continued drop off in production has led to him becoming a popular face to associate with this year's struggles, and to most fans he remains a prime candidate to be exiled from the roster this summer. The sentiment is justified, but I think that the Rangers would be selling very low, and instead of just casting him off, it's worthwhile to look at how Zibanejad has finished this season.

If you want to be all hellfire and brimstone when talking about Zibanejad and stop reading right now, you can do that, and I won't be offended. The vibes around this team are awful in general, rancid might be a more apt descriptor, and fans are channeling that anger through angst at the players. On the whole of the season, you certainly can be concerned with the year Zibanejad had. But I think you also need to be willing to give credit where it is due.

Zibanejad ended last season with just 26 goals and 72 points in 81 games, and the hope was it was a slight blip in the road, and not the beginning of a decline from a player entering his 30s. For most of this season the dip continued, his overall game struggled, and fans were rightfully frustrated. The Rangers’ former No. 1 center has four years remaining on his contract that carries a cap charge of $8.5 million, and he’s someone the team may likely look to move in the summer. It is very easy to continue to be very negative about Zibanejad, and just be angry until he’s no longer sporting a Broadway blue shirt.

In many ways, Zibanejad has become a victim of his own success, as he established a standard that in some ways was unrealsitic for him to maintain. To partially quote Harvey Dent from Christopher Nolan's 2008 classic The Dark Knight, "you either die a hero or you live long enough to become the villain."

From 2019 through 2023, Zibanejad’s age 25 to 29 seasons, he scored 163 goals and added 208 assists for 371 points in 358 games which was 18th-best in the NHL during that stretch. That put him ahead of names like Alex Ovechkin, Kyle Connor, Brayden Point, Sebastian Aho, and John Tavares just to name a few. Zibanejad rightly earned a contract extension based on his play, and immediately rewarded the team's faith in him with back-to-back point per game campaigns. Then came last season’s dip, which happened in a season in which players like Alexis Lafrenière broke out, and obviously you’ve seen what’s gone on this season.

Fans have high expectations for their top players, and Zibanejad is no different. He vastly outperformed his previous salary of $5.35 million, earned a well-deserved extension, which is still very friendly in the context of a cap set to explode over the coming season, and things got off to a great start. It is rare for a player to sign a free agent contract and live up to expectations every single year, and sometimes you need to be realistic and understand that there's going to be a balance of production throughout the life of the contract.

While he’s earned a considerable amount of ire from fans this year, it isn't like he's the only player who has failed to meet expectation, This season has seen practically everyone regress statistically, and it will be remembered as an embarrassment given the heights the team soared to last year. In all of this suck, however, I think it’s worth evaluating how certain players ended the season in order to get a sense of whether or not they can be counted on next season.

Here's a look at Zibanejad's splits by month.

It's clear that December was his worst month, and since the calendar flipped from 2024 to 2025 he's been on an upswing. Zibanejad shot just 3% in the month of December, and averaged 2.54 shots per game in an attempt to work his way out of it. That stretch essentially brings down the rest of his season, and it so happens to the period of time directly after Chris Drury's memo went out.

Interestingly enough, in the 43 games played this calendar year, Zibanejad has 12 goals and 25 assists for 37 points. It averages out to 0.86 points per game, or 72 points over the course of an 82-game season. That's in line with what Zibanejad did last year, and is a lot more acceptable than the 60 or so points he'll end up with this season. It's below the standard you'd expect, I tend to look for a player to get a point for every $100,000 they make, so for Zibanejad his $8.5 million deal would be 85 points. But the environments in which Zibanejad has played this season aren't completely equal, and for that reason it makes sense to go a little deeper.

There's another, albeit slightly smaller, inflection point I think that's worth looking at for Zibanejad. When J.T. Miller rejoined the team via trade, Zibanejad was moved to the wing to create an opportunity for Miller to assume the role of top-line center. Since February, Zibanejad's primarily been deployed as a winger, and he's been one of the team's most productive players.

Since February 1, Zibanejad is third in team scoring with a line of 9-20-29 in 29 games. Only Panarin (16-19-35) and Miller (11-19-30) have added more offense in that stretch. Not only has his offense been solid, Zibanejad's posted some quality underlying numbers.

Per Evolving-Hockey, Zibanejad ranks fourth among roster regulars with a 50.92 expected goals for percentage, fifth with a 57.31 goals for percentage, and fifth with a Corsi for percentage of 52.16.
In the 50 games prior to that, Zibanejad posted a 47.44 xGF%, a 36.42 GF%, and a 46.43 CF%, which was some of the worst numbers on the team overall.

Since February he's primarily played on a line with Miller in the middle and Will Cuylle on the opposite wing, and in 118 minutes the trio has a slash line that includes a 56.37 xGF%, a 56.06 GF%, and a 56.6 CF%. In totality the line has the fifth-most minutes together on the team this season, and there's no reason not to keep it together next year.

Here's a visual look, via Hockey-Viz, of the line's impact for the Rangers thus far.

This has been a pretty small sample in a stretch of games for the Rangers against a myriad of opponents whose playoff futures were mostly determined. That said, this line is working, and there's no reason why either player will be gone this summer. For starters, Cuylle is a restricted free agent who will get locked up on a reasonable deal. Miller just returned to the Rangers, and Zibanejad has a full no-movement clause on his contract.

We don't know what turnover will occur behind the bench, or in the front office, but know that there will be changes to the roster. If the Rangers are tying to look at this season as a blip, what sense would it make to not run this line back next season? I am not saying Zibanejad is going to remain a Ranger for the remainder of his contract, but I think his value is at a point where it can only increase from this point. Teams aren't going to slightly pay less for Zibanejad if he struggles next season. But there's a chance they would be more open to making a deal if this recent stretch of play continues.

Additionally, aren't you at least interested what Zibanejad is capable of after a summer full of rest, returning to the team in a defined role in what hopefully will be a better situation? We've seen the Rangers trade talent like Kaapo Kakko and Pavel Buchnevich away only for them to produce elsewhere, and while getting $8.5 million worth of cap space for this summer is tempting, there isn't a free agent who would jump in and make an immediate impact. Maybe Mitch Marner, but that would be a pipe dream that could complicate other business.

In any case, multiple things can be true at the same time. This was a disapointing season for the New York Rangers, and a very disapointing one for Mika Zibanejad. The team needs to make changes, and Zibanejad isn't getting any younger. But it's also true that once things started stabilizing, and Zibanejad was deployed in a different role, his productivity increased and he was playing at a level that helped the team.

There's no easy answer to fix what ails the Rangers. It's going to be an interesting summer, and in many ways it is longer overdue given how stable things have remained for a team that went to the Eastern Conference Final in two of the last three seasons.

So while his name is neck-and-neck with Chris Kreider when it comes to players fans most want to see leave the team, the Rangers don't have to get rid of Zibanejad. There is a path forward to have him be a productive player, all while creating a situation that makes facilitating a trade easier, and avoiding the drama that was associated with Jacob Trouba and Barclay Goodrow's departures. That said, if he's willing to waive his NMC, and there's teams offering a decent return, it would be foolish not to consider starting fresh. But there's no reason the Rangers have to move Zibanejad. You may want him gone, but he's one of the more productive Rangers in recent memories, and deserves another shot to prove himself.