The New York Rangers are a team that has been previously linked to a top offer sheet candidate, and even though rumors are swirling again, this isn't a move that the team has to make.
Buffalo Sabres forward JJ Peterka is the player in question, and the 23-year-old winger is coming off a career year. Peterka is a restricted free agent who could potentially be poached by an offer sheet, and the Rangers are a team who could be in the offer sheet business this offseason. There are also other teams who could go this route or also put together quite a package to add the youngster to their squad,. Fans of all teams are eagerly picturing what Peterka would look like in their team's uniform, but the Rangers don't need to be one of those teams.
The reason why Peterka is a hot commodity is the fact he's coming off a season in which scored 27 goals and added 41 assists for 68 points in 77 games played. It was an improvement from the previous season in which he finished with a line of 28-22-50 in 82 games played.
The context important to all of this is ice time, and it explains his surge in scoring. Peterka averaged 18:11 a night for the Buffalo Sabres which was up nearly two minutes from the the 16:24 he logged during the 2023-24 season. When you breakdown his production to a points per 60 minutes basis, Peterka averaged 2.34 points at 5v5 per Evolving-Hockey which was up from the 2.16 he posted in 2023-24.
The reason this is important to the Rangers is they already have a player like Peterka in their system, and that player is Will Cuylle. Cuylle, also an RFA, is coming off a career year in which he scored 20 goals, he recorded 25 assists and 45 points in 82 games. He accomplished this skating just 15:05 per game, and the majority of his points came at even strength.
The season prior Cuylle scored 13 goals and added 8 assists for 21 points in 81 games while skating just 11:08 per game, so his surge in scoring with increased ice time is a good sign. If you break his production down to a per 60 basis, just like for Peterka above, Cuylle averaged 2.10 points per 60 at 5v5 which was up from 1.23 the previous season.
The quick math here is that Cuylle's output increased by 0.87 points per 60 over a single season, and Peterka increased just 0.18 points per 60. This isn't to take anything away from Peterka, but if the Rangers already have a player like him in the system, what sense would it make to pay a premium for someone else?
To take things a step further, the on-ice advanced analytics from Evolving-Hockey also tell an interesting story. Peterka posted a 53.89 goals for percentage, a 48.9 Corsi for percentage, and an expected goals for percentage of just 44.7. Cuylle, on the other hand, had a 54.86 goals for percentage (+0.97), a 49.64 Corsi for percentage (+0.74), and a 48.36 expected goals for percentage (+3.66).
This is quite significant, because with Cuylle's results being better across the board, it stands to reason that as he gets older and gains experience in the league he could continue to post numbers that are positive. There is also the chance that he sees a decrease with tougher usage, but the Rangers have the time and opportunity to figure that out.
Often times it is easy to chase for the next big thing, and there is the possibility that Peterka ends up being the better player in the long run. Last season was just Cuylle's second full season in the league, whereas Peterka just finished his third. The Rangers would best be served creating additional opportunities for Cuylle this season, and see if the increase in production follows him. He is a player who the team can re-sign for a reasonable rate, and if he ends up continuing his increase in production that will be a good problem for the Rangers to deal with at a later date.