Keys To the East: How the Rangers Can Tame The Panthers For Eastern Crown
It's time to hunt again for the New York Rangers. They've won eight playoff games and defied the odds, "upsetting" the Vegas bettors by defeating the Carolina Hurricanes. However, they still need eight more to reach their goal of winning a Stanley Cup. Yet, to reach their first final in a decade, they must beat the East's reigning beasts, the Florida Panthers. This series should be a classic, so let's consider what to expect.
The Top Six:
Both top lines have much in common and feature vital two-way centers and wingers. The Rangers have Chris Kreider Mika Zibanejad, and Jack Roslovic. The Panthers' top line has former Blueshirt Vladimir Tarasenko, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Reinhart.
Barkov, who just won his second Selke Trophy, leads the line with a 56.3% expected goals for percentage (xGF) in the playoffs, according to moneypuck.com, compared to Zibanejad's line at 46.5%. With the addition of Tarasenko, a known playoff performer, the Panthers' top line might have a slight edge. If I'm Peter Laviolette, the third line of Filip Chytil, Alex Wenberg, and Kaapo Kakko should match and shutdown the trio.
However, it's the second-line matchup where the Blueshirts can dominate. New York has Vincent Trochcek, Artemi Panarin, and Alexis Lafreniere. Trocheck's line was the league's highest-scoring unit this season, racking up 54 goals with an average of 3.75 goals per 60. Panarin led the charge with 120 points (49 goals and 71 assists), but Trocheck (77) and Lafrenière (57) also hit new career highs to make this a well-balanced attack.
The Panthers have Carter Verhaeghe, Anton Lundell, and Matthew Tkachuk. Lundell, at just 22, moved up to replace Sam Bennett during Friday's series-clinching win over the Boston Bruins, and this is the lineup they're expected to start in the Eastern Conference Finals. All three players have been threats, with at least nine points each in the playoffs. Tkachuk leads with 14 points, and he and Verhaeghe have combined for 11 game-winning goals over the last two postseasons. Florida will mix and match its top-six forwards, with Barkov's line sometimes tasked with shutting down the breadman. Given how evenly matched these two teams are, the last change on home ice and favorable matchups will be crucial in this series.
The Bottom Six:
On the bottom six, the Rangers have Filip Chytil, Alex Wennberg, and Kaapo Kakko, while Florida features Sam Bennett between Eetu Luostarinen and Evan Rodrigues.
Adding Chytil makes the Rangers' lineup look much more profound. The third line, which often includes Kakko, Wennberg, and rookie Will Cuylle, has been strong regarding underlying numbers. The trio leads all remaining playoff lines with a 69.8% expected goals for percentage (xGF) among lines that have played at least 60 minutes together. However, finishing has been an issue, as they've only scored two goals in 66.7 minutes.
The Panthers' fourth line is built to be a pain to play against, with Nick Cousins and Ryan Lomberg pushing their buttons. Centering them is Kevin Stenlund, who's been solid in the faceoff circle, winning 52.2% of his draws this postseason. They won't score but will wear you down defensively. The Rangers will either have Matt Rempe's tenacity, Jonny Brodzinki's speed, or Will Cuylle's smarts. The fact we're even questioning this proves how deep they are. Regardless, the grizzled veteran Barclay Goodrow will center the trio. He's been excellent in these playoffs defensively, especially on the penalty kill, and was clutch with the empty net goal, sealing the series against Carolina.
So while it may seem the Rangers have the forward depth, the blueline is a different story.
Examining The Blueline:
Adam Fox, a former Norris Trophy winner, has yet to be himself since colliding with Caps defenseman Nick Jensen in the first round. He has gone four straight games without a point.
On the other hand, the Panthers have one of the NHL's best defensive duos. Aaron Ekblad, their top defenseman, is a 6-foot-4, 215-pound former No. 1 overall pick who excels at covering ice and closing gaps.
Gustav Forsling has also been outstanding, earning some Norris Trophy votes this season. With Forsling on the ice, the Panthers have allowed only 1.52 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. He also led all Florida defensemen with 39 points, showing he's a scoring threat.
Miller and Trouba have allowed 97 goals over the past two seasons, just behind St. Louis' Nick Leddy and Colton Parayko with 101. Despite this, three consecutive coaches have favored Miller and Trouba as a top pairing. However, it seems risky, especially with Trouba's recent uneven play. He was on the ice for nine of Carolina's 19 goals in the last series, including a rough stretch involving eight out of ten goals.
If these struggles continue, don't be surprised if Laviolette pairs Miller with Braden Schneider.
Brandon Montour and former Blueshirt Niko Mikkola have been solid on the Florida side. Montour takes care of puck-moving duties, while Mikkola, a former Ranger acquired at last year's trade deadline, uses his 6-foot-4 reach to lock down the defensive zone. Together, they posted a 51.7% expected goals for percentage (xGF) during the regular season.
The Erik Gustafsson-Braden Schneider pairing started the season strong but tailed off later. Schneider seemed to play better next to Miller, while Gustafsson has had some shaky moments in these playoffs.
Laviolette put them back together for Game 6 against Carolina but then cut their ice time, with both defensemen logging their lowest postseason minutes that night.
Florida coach Paul Maurice rarely uses his third pair of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Dmitry Kulikov. Still, they've been effective in limited minutes with a 54.6% expected goals-for-percentage (xGF), the best among Panthers' pairs in these playoffs. They're both trusted veterans with size and mobility, traits that every coach values at this time of year.
The last line of defense, though, is arguably the most important. It's one that decided the Rangers' previous series, and that's between the pipes.
Between The Pipes:
Right now, there's a buzz about several talented Russian goalies making waves in the NHL, and these two are definitely among the cream of the crop.
Sergei Bobrovsky had a standout season, earning a spot as a finalist for the Vezina Trophy. His performance speaks for itself with a record of 36-17-4, a .915 save percentage, a 2.37 goals against average, and leading the league with six shutouts. However, many argue that Igor Shesterkin steals the show regarding sheer dominance.
The Shesterkinator hit his stride after the all-star break, posting an impressive 16.69 Goals Saved Above Expectation (GSAx) in his final 23 starts. Put his .930 save percentage outshone all other goalies who played at least 15 games after the break.
As the playoffs kicked off, the 28-year-old Shesterkin continued his unstoppable run, going 8-2 with a .923 save percentage and leading the league with 8.8 GSAX, while Bobrovsky is at 2.6, according to Moneypuck.
Bobrovsky has shown strength in handling higher-danger situations, often facing shots up close, including tips, rebounds, and rush shots. However, he has also let in some more manageable goals.
On the other hand, Shesterkin has mainly faced challenges with medium-danger shots in terms of expected goals.
While the Rangers' goaltending advantage might not be as evident as in previous rounds, Shesterkin's undeniable impact on their success is crystal clear. The team rallies around his talent, poised to ride it to the finish line.
The Importance Of Special Teams:
Regarding special teams, the Rangers are called "Special Teams merchants" by outsiders for a reason.
Their power play has been a game-changer in the first two rounds, and it'll need to stay sharp, especially against the Panthers, the most disciplined team in the league. The Blueshirts scored five times against Carolina's league-best penalty kill, including twice in 23 seconds in the series opener. New York has Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trochcek, and Adam Fox, who've all excelled individually on the man advantage this season. They've exploited teams who've tried to play the 1-2-2 diamond with their 1-3-1 umbrella.
Meanwhile, the Panthers heavily rely on one source, with the NHL-leading Reinhart carrying the weight with an impressive 27 goals. In the playoffs, the Rangers have proven their mettle by killing 89.5% of power plays, including a remarkable 20 for 22 against the second-ranked power play in Carolina last seeded. The Panthers, in comparison, stand at 86.1%, a testament to the pressure on Reinhart, who scored 27 of his 57 goals on the power play, to deliver. Still, the Cats' special teams will challenge the Blueshirts. Regarding the power play, they might have generated fewer opportunities against Boston in Round 2, but their average over five games still ranked among the top 10 in the league. And on the penalty kill, they've been adamant to crack lately.
Their power play often capitalizes from close range, while their penalty kill effectively clears the same areas. It will be a test for the Rangers and special teams coach Dan Muse to navigate through both situations.
The Blueshirts lead all playoff teams with four shorthanded goals, while the Panthers have two. Enough said.
The Masterminds:
When it comes to coaching, these head coaches have not just elevated their teams to the top tier of the NHL; they've done it with an unwavering dedication. They've blended skill with grit, pushing for that playoff-style intensity all season. Now, it's all about which team can rise to the occasion.
Laviolette made his mark with the Rangers, bringing intense practices and a meticulous game plan. His pre and post-practice huddles with tailored tactical drills for upcoming opponents or refining the team's signature 1-3-1 neutral zone trap are noteworthy. The various faceoff plays from assistant coach Mike Pecca the Rangers execute each game are particularly impressive, a departure from the past. While I liked Gerard Gallant, it's clear that parting ways with him was the right decision. The transformation in the Rangers' style of play from last year to now is remarkable. What's even more incredible is that, delving into the 2022 conference finals run under Gallant's first year, it was mainly Igor Shesterkin who the team rallied around, not Gallant.
What truly impresses me about Laviolette is his strategic prowess. Whether it's strategically sending out specific players for key faceoffs or shaking up defensive pairings mid-game, he's always thinking two steps ahead. And the articluate way he communicates with the media, you can tell he's got a fiery passion for the game.
But Maurice has done the same, revolutionizing his boys since joining the Panthers two seasons ago. His demanding coaching style has pushed his players to their limits in Florida, and it's paid off over the past couple of years.
This coaching matchup is going to be epic. It's like a chess match on ice, and I can't wait to see how it all plays out. The anticipation is palpable.
Analyzing The Fanbases:
Fanbases: The Rangers will have seven home games since FLA Live Arena is expected to be packed with Blue and white. But don't count out the Panthers' supporters—they'll make themselves heard, especially with their rat-throwing tradition to rattle the Rangers.
Last year, the Panthers caused a stir by temporarily restricting playoff ticket sales to prevent Toronto fans from snapping them up. Now, it's New York's turn. Tickets for the Panthers' home games in the Eastern Conference Final went on sale last Saturday, and just like Carolina, Rangers fans are expected to flood the resale market, adding to the competitive atmosphere. Plenty of Rangers fans are already living in Florida, further fueling the ticket frenzy.
It's also going to be a lucrative series for the box offices. For context, here are the ticket prices: The total cost to attend all 41 home games for the Panthers this season on TickPick was $823. Meanwhile, the least expensive ticket to Game 1 of the ECF at MSG is $482, significantly higher than the average Panthers game. Here are the cheapest get-in prices for the series. Game 1: $479, Game 2: $531, Game 3: $325, Game 4: $264, Game 5: $651, Game 6: $369, and Game 7: $912, reflecting the high demand and value of these playoff games.
This fan battle will be as intense as the one on the ice.
The Prediction:
On paper, the favored Panthers are the stronger team. They've been through the grind after reaching the Stanley Cup finals last year. They have that perfect mix of skill, grit, size, coaching, and goaltending you want in a playoff juggernaut.
Barkov, Reinhart, and Tkachuk bring the physical edge and defensive game you need in the postseason. And when there are breakdowns, Bobrovsky between the pipes is as reliable as they come.
Yet, there's an enigmatic quality about the Rangers that captivates me. Their game is a blend of average even-strength play, exceptional goaltending, effective special teams, and a knack for clutch finishes. This winning combination has been their secret weapon all year, and with each victory, the sense of something extraordinary brewing only grows stronger.
Take, for instance, game 6 against Carolina, a perfect illustration of the Rangers' potential. Destiny seemed to favor them with that Kreider natural hat trick. Despite the undeniable strength of both teams, I find it hard to dismiss the notion that the Rangers possess a touch of magic. While both teams are likely to secure an away win, I stand by my pre-playoff bracket prediction. My call? Rangers in 7.