NY Rangers: Evaluating Alexis Lafreniere's next contract

With NHL training camps officially underway, the New York Rangers are one of the teams with sky-high expectations. Once again, the Blueshirts' goal is to hoist the Stanley Cup, and to do this, they need contribtuions from up and down the lineup.

A major storyline for Rangers fans to follow is budding star Alexis Lafreniere, who had career highs in points, goals and assists (57/28/29) during the 2023-2024 regular season. Then, the 22-year-old was tied for first on the team with eight goals throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs. After these performances, many are expecting the former first overall pick to take the next step.

Lafreniere's performance throughout the season will be crucial for the Rangers' success, but also for his contract negotiations - the winger is on the last year of a 2-year, $4.65 million contract he signed last offseason. New York will continue to negotiate throughout the season and hope to extend Lafreniere for years to come.

It goes without saying that Lafreniere's next contract is going to be much bigger.

Projecting Lafreniere's next contract

The 22-year-old is set up for a major pay-day, especially if he keeps ascending as a player. When he was drafted with the first overall pick of the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, the expectation was for Lafreniere to become a superstar. Last season showed he has this potential.

All signs point towards him being in New York for the long run - NHL insider Dan Rosen said he has no doubt Lafreniere will sign a contract extension with the Rangers, as he is important for their present and future.

The Rangers' priority is to extend Lafreniere for the long-term, and if this is the case, his average annual value will be north of $6 million. It will especially be the case if he is able to eclipse 60 points or 30 goals this upcoming season, both of which will be career highs.

To prove this, look no further than Lucas Raymond, who was selected three picks after Lafreniere in the 2020 draft by the Detroit Red Wings: a few days ago, Raymond signed an eight-year, $64.6 million contract with a $8.075 million AAV. This comes after Raymond had a team-high 72 points last season.

Lafreniere is a breakout candidate not only for the Rangers, but league-wide, and if he is able to match these expectations, his contract will look similar to Raymond's. If it is north of six years, his AAV should be at least $6.5 million if Lafreniere takes the next step.

But, there is a barrier in the negotiations. Extending Lafreniere is not New York's top priority this season, rather their superstar goaltender.

Igor Shesterkin's contract negotiations will set the slate for Lafreniere's next contract.

For the Rangers, extending Igor Shesterkin is the most pressing matter. The 28-year-old will probably be the highest-paid goaltender in the entire NHL by this time next year.

This is deserved - since making his debut in 2020, Shesterkin has been one of the best, if not the best, goaltenders in the NHL. He won the Vezina Trophy in the 2021-2022 NHL season, has been the backbone for a Rangers team that's made two Eastern Conference Finals and has won the Presidents' Trophy. New York could not have accomplished what they have without Shesterkin.

There are reports that Shesterkin's camp is expecting up to a $12 million AAV contract, and even if the value is not this high, the bottom line is the goaltender's contract is going to take up a sufficient amount of cap space.

This is something to monitor for Lafreniere's contract. If the Rangers do choose to give Shesterkin this expected value, Lafreniere's contract MIGHT be more short term in years and value. It might be similar to Filip Chytil's four-year, $17.75 million contract that he signed in 2023. But, Lafreniere's will be more.

If it is more short-term, like four or five years, expect Lafreniere's AAV to be around $4.5 to $6 million. Then, when he is available for another extension and the Rangers have more cap room, he'll get more of a pay bump. This might be the case if New York wants to keep all their core pieces in tact.

Still, it's possible that the St-Eustache, Quebec native gets his long-term value similar to Raymond's contract. As of right now, that's the most likely scenario.

The bottom line: Lafreniere is in for a pay-day

Regardless of years and AAV, Lafreniere is in for a major contract extension. The Rangers' young star is part of their present and future plans to end New York's 30-year Stanley Cup drought, and if the Blueshirts are able to accomplish this feat, he will surely be one of the reasons.

There's no reason to think the 22-year-old will leave New York any time soon, but for the Rangers, extending him will be a priority. Yes, they need to do the same with Igor Shesterkin (and they should be able to), but both negotiations will be going on at the same time.

Chris Drury has a lot of work to do with his Rangers team, and this year, particularly one bonafide and one budding superstar.

We'll see how it all unfolds to keep Lafreniere as a Ranger for years to come.