Project 94 Hockey- The Rangers Advanced Metrics Are Staggering

Project 94 Hockey is a new advanced analytics website accessible to the public putting numbers to answers with the latest advanced metrics that aren't just algebraic mish-mosh.

Now that the New York Rangers' historic but disappointing 2023-2024 season is in the rearview mirror, the publication shared statistics that reveal what Reilly Smith can bring to the Blueshirts, how Alexis Lafreniere broke out, and more.

Q. First and foremost, how did Project 94 Analytics start, and what is the company’s process for data collection? 

A. I started Project 94 Hockey intending to make advanced metrics more digestible and easier to use in hockey analysis. After messing around with some ideas, I built the team ranking system and formally launched the website. The data we used this past year was from SportRadar and we’re going to use a combination of sources this upcoming season. I’m excited about our models, like expected goals, shot quality, win probability, etc. were built using 5 seasons of that data and are updated daily.

Q. Jacob Trouba and Kaapo Kakko have taken a lot of heat this summer. Is there a stat that points to the positive impact they have on the ice?

A. There were many, many games ahead of Trouba’s injury that showed the defensive side of his game was still strong. His xG Against per 60 (at even strength) was starting to get more consistent and declining throughout the season ahead of his injury. Not to mention his 2.65 blocked shots per game in the regular season, up from 2022 at 2.39, which is among the best in the league and highest on the Rangers apart from Connor Mackey’s 1 game. I’m not dismissing the criticisms of the playoffs, but there are many reasons I think Trouba is an important part of this team and if at his top play, is crucial to a run this year.

Q. What underlying statistic stands out the most about Artemi Panarins' game?

A. Panarin was on the ice for 1932 unblocked shot attempts at even strength, which was 51st in the league and tied with Trocheck for the most of any forward on the Ranger (K’Andre Miller was the leader). Panarin’s instinct to shoot more this season was apparent not only on the stat sheet but also by watching a few minutes of play. 

Q. Outside of the obvious jump in power play goal production, why is Chris Kreider having a better second half of his career?

A. As a top liner, Kreider has always been able to limit the opponent's chances, which allows him to create opponent downside into Rangers' offense. His on-ice xG Against (even strength) this past regular season was 0.8, which was extremely low for a forward who is matched up against top lines. Moreover, he plays in every situation for the Rangers, which always speaks to a player’s work behind the scenes every year to become a well-rounded hockey player.

Q. Is there a niche or unique Lafreniere metric that addresses his immense growth last season?

A. Shots and goals, there’s no need to overcomplicate it. In the 2022 regular season, Lafreniere had 183 shots unblocked, which was 76.57% of his total attempts. In 2023, however, his total attempts jumped to 400, and managed to increase his unblocked percentage to 79.5%. And if you think it’s directly due to increased ice time, his Unblocked Shot Attempts per 60, which helps level the time on the ice field, increased from 8.91 to 13.48. With 57 points and 1.19 Goals per 60, Lafreniere made a huge jump and his percentage of shots unblocked tells me that he is reading the game better and faster. As a bonus, his individual even strength xG was 34.71, among the top in the league.

Q. With new roles for Zac Jones and Matt Rempe, what numbers summarize their 2023-2024 season?

A. Jones had 52 of his 69 total shot attempts unblocked in the regular season, and 42 of them were on goal. Adam Fox had a similar percentage at 65.22% for his 299 total shot attempts. Obviously, that number declines as you shoot more, so I’d be interested to see how Jones keeps up with more ice time but it shows a very strong foundation for offense in his game. 

Interestingly enough, Rempe had a positive expected goals differential in the regular season at even strength (3.17). This is where numbers don’t always tell the full story as his ice time was limited. However, for most of the regular season, the Rangers’ 4th line, with Rempe, was effective at limiting the offense of their opponents, which can speak to Rempe’s physical style of play. It’s not a direct causation, but it absolutely should be counted.

Q. How can Reilly Smith help the Rangers first line next season?

A. Smith can help the first line with the two-way play, not that Kreider and Zibanejad need defensive help, but Smith can allow Kreider and Zibenajed to be up the ice faster. Smith was 97th percentile in distance skated per 60, which, in my opinion, will pair nicely with Zibanejad who is at his best when he is leading his line consistently up the ice to catch the opponent out of position.

Q. How do Igor’s numbers stack up to the other elite goaltenders in the NHL?

A. Shesterkin faced the 3rd most shots against in the playoffs, behind only Bobrovsky and Skinner. His regular season numbers don’t jump out at you, as his inconsistency was noted by many. But many games in the playoffs showed he stole them for the Rangers, or even just kept them in games that they lost. His Saves Above Expected in the Rangers’ Game 6 win vs Carolina was 1.46, and in Game 3 vs Florida, in which the Rangers lost, his Saves Above Expected was 2.56, to Bobrovsky’s 0.95. 

Q. It hasn’t been talked about enough how the Rangers had the best trio in hockey last season. How do they compare to the best lines in hockey in the last few years?

A. As I mentioned before, their shot production was among the best in the league, and this year was their best. Trockeck was 59% from the offensive zone in face-offs. In terms of offensive output, their numbers compare strongly to other top lines in Edmonton, Pittsburgh, Colorado, etc.