Pavel Dorofeyev arrived on Broadway in unexpected fashion back in June, but the consensus on what comes next is surprisingly uniform. Despite landing a massive seven-year, $11 million AAV extension, mainstream projection models are setting the bar remarkably low for the New York Rangers' new offensive centerpiece.
Dorofeyev was selected in the third round of the 2019 draft, and his post draft performance in the KHL was nothing all that extraordinary. His game took off with the Henderson Golden Knights in the AHL, and later on with the varsity squad in Vegas. While it is simple to suggest that plucking Dorofeyev from an uber talented roster and dropping him in New York will put him at a disadvantage, such a theory just goes against what he's done since making the jump to North America.
Experts are in aggrement when it comes to Dorofeyev's expected output
This is the time of year in which fantasy hockey coverage and projections start to pickup steam, and this year things got underway a little earlier since the season starts at the end of September instead of October. NHL dot com, The Hockey News, and The Athletic are three sources who routinely cover fantasy hockey, and they all set the bar for Dorofeyev a little lower than you might expect. Evolving-Hockey is a resource that's great for advanced metrics and contract projections, and their fantasy model happened to be in line with the other three as well.
Both Evolving-Hockey and The Athletic have Dorofeyev in line to finish with 64 points, and both NHL dot com and The Hockey News had the Rangers' winger finishing with 65 points. The general thought is that the Rangers, sans Artemi Panarin, won't have a clear point per game forward. Instead, the assumption is scoring will be done by committee, and therefore everyone eating means there's an expected cluster of players finishing in the 60 point range with others a little higher and lower.
Dorofeyev's had a knack of getting better year over year
The reason I am optomistic about Dorofeyev being a positive contributor for the Rangers is his track record. It is true that prior results aren't a guarantee for future success, but I think there's something to be said about consistency.
His initial stint with the Silver Knights in the AHL saw him finish with a line of 9-3-13 in just 24 games, and he followed that up with 27 goals, 25 assists, and 52 points in 63 games. The following season saw him appear in 50 games total between the AHL and NHL, and his time with Vegas included a line of 7-2-9 in 18 games, and his AHL stint included a line of 9-8-17 in 32 games.
The 2023-24 campaign was Dorofeyev's first stint as a full-time NHLer, and that year saw him post a 60.25 GF%. a 51.92 CF%. and a 55.81 xGF% along with a line of 13-11-24 in 47 games. He took only 97 shots in that span and shot 13.4 percent. His 2024-25 season was even better, 35-17-52 in 82 games, and he had a cool 52.4 GF%, a 54.24 CF%, and a 57.71 xGF% while shooting 13.8 percent on 254 shots.
His last season in Vegas was a career year, and saw him post a line of 37-27-64 while shooting 16.1 percent on 230 shots. Dorofeyev's underlyings last year also include a 54.39 GF%, a 55.24 CF%, and a 56.12 xGF%. What stands out about these numbers is that Dorofeyev has shown consistency in a number of area which should be repeatable in New York.
DOROFEYEV PULLS A FORSBERG OH MY 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/7HT6lVOCqi
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) October 21, 2025
He's generated offense at 5v5 and winning his minutes with regularity. Dorofeyev is able to generate shot volume with ease, and he's also been efficient with his chance. That he's scored 33 goals on the power play is something some might use as a dig against him, but he's joining a power play that at peak performance is easily one of the best in the league.
Lastly, his shot is one of the best in the league, and it's something that hasn't been a fluke up to this point.
Via NHL.com:
Dorofeyev, an advanced stats juggernaut, ranked in the 90th percentile or higher among forwards in the following shot metrics this regular season:
• Hardest shot: 93.33 mph (93rd percentile)
• 80-90 mph shot attempts: 49 (96th percentile)
• 70-80 mph shot attempts: 80 (93rd percentile)
• High-danger goals: 15 (90th percentile)
• High-danger shots on goal: 82 (95th percentile)
• Midrange goals: 10 (93rd percentile)
• Midrange shots on goal: 77 (93rd percentile)
• Long-range shots on goal: 23 (93rd percentile
These are all things that don't happen by accident, and while there's some debate over whether or not the Rangers have players who can get him the puck like Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, or Mark Stone did, at the end of the day a setup is only as good as what happens when it gets onto the player's stick.
Pavel Dorofeyev, the newest member of the @NYRangers, has quite the dangerous shot! 🚀 pic.twitter.com/VuqqguYAcx
— NHL (@NHL) June 28, 2026
Very early prediction for Dorofeyev in 2026-27
It is possible that the bright lights of Broadway could bring some extra pressure and a prolonged adjustment period. It's something that's always mentioned whenever a player joins the organization, especially when they've signed a new contract, but I don't think it's something that should bother him.
The Rangers have needed a volume shooter in the worst way, a he should benefit from the abundance of playmaking talent on the roster. Last year Mika Zibanejad led the team with 215 shots on goal, the year prior was Artemi Panarin with 224, and the former Ranger also led the team in 2023-24 with a staggering 303 shots on goal.
With that being said, I expect Dorofeyev to finish the season with at least 260 shots on goal, he will make a strong push for 40 goals, and will also eclipse 70 points for the first time in his career. Vegas made a choice not to pay him, and I think a year from now they will look back on their decision with regret.
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