Rangers 2021 fifth rounder has become latest unexpected March surprise

Jaroslav Chmelar is the latest late round find to carve out a role on Broadway, proving that even in a lost season, the New York Rangers can still find ways to win. This second look at Chmelar,drafted by the Rangers in the 5th round of the 2021 NHL Entry Draft with the 144th overall selection, has been a revelation. While he’s still a work in progress, his play is forcing the front office to reconsider his place in the team's long-term blueprint and it puts pressure on incumbents like Matt Rempe among others.

The 2024-25 season served as Chmelar's true professional starting point, and everything that has happened since has been encouraging to see. Appearing in 71 games for the Hartford Wolf Pack, he tallied 12 goals and 17 assists for 29 points. While the raw totals don't jump off the page, those 29 points eclipsed his entire two-year output at Providence College, providing the first real evidence that at 6'4" and 227 pounds, Chmelar had the tools to be a legitimate NHL bottom-six forward.

Earlier this season, his first cup of coffee with the big club was a wash. In a six-game stint, he averaged just 7:51 of ice time, posting a 41.79 CF% and a 42.24 xGF%. He looked every bit the rookie overwhelmed by the pace, struggling to make an impact in a heavily sheltered role.

Leveling up in Hartford

Instead of letting that plateau define him, Chmelar returned to the AHL and looked for ways to level up. Before his March recall, he was on pace for a career year, posting 8 goals and 17 assists (25 points) in 46 games.

His most recent stretch in Hartford showed a player finding more consistency in his playmaking. Over his final 11 AHL games before the March 2 recall, Chmelar recorded one goal and four assists for five points, including a multi-point effort against Belleville on February 21. This steady production saw his scoring rate climb from 0.41 P/GP as a rookie to 0.54 P/GP, signaling that he had successfully refined his approach in the AHL and was ready for another chance. He re-joined the Rangers bringing a sense of snarl and pugnacity that has been missing since Rempe was once again sidelined, but this time, the big man brought a more balanced offensive game to match.

A masterclass in efficiency

Since his March 2 recall, Chmelar has completely flipped the script on his underlying metrics. In seven games, he has logged 57 minutes at 5v5, and the growth is undeniable. Most notably, the Rangers have yet to concede a goal with him on the ice, resulting in a perfect 100% GF%. His possession numbers have also seen a massive leap, with his xGF% climbing to 51.87% from his early-season mark of 42.24% per Evolving-Hockey. This efficiency has translated directly to team success, the Rangers are 5-2-0 in this span, averaging 2.16 goals for per 60 minutes with #49 on the ice, albeit this is a super small sample size.

Earning the Broadway spotlight

With the playoff race essentially over, the priority has shifted toward evaluation. Mike Sullivan can responded to Chmelar's surge by finally pulling the leash back. The Blueshirts bench boss pushed his ice time past the 10-minute threshold in his third game back with the team, but his ice time has been a bit lower in recent games. This is to be expected for a player skating on the fourth line, and an ideal scenario would see the third and fourth line get additional minutes closer to the end of the season. For now Chmelar will appreciate each chance he gets to jump over the boards, and at the very least it gives fans something else to get excited for.

Whether he’s creating space in a middle-six audition or providing a spark on the fourth line, Chmelar is giving the Rangers exactly what they need for the Letter 2.0 retool, energy and identity. It’s entirely possible he hasn't reached his final form yet, but in a season where the Rangers are looking for building blocks, Chmelar is making it very hard to look the other way. He's just the latest "big boy" to show what he can do, and with more on the way soon, it appears the Rangers have found a type they want to be part of the future of Broadway hockey.