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Rangers defense shakeup will force an uncomfortable conversation about Alberts Smits

Mike Sullivan shook up the forward lines, but his impending blue line changes will trigger a hard organizational look at 18-year-old Alberts Smits and his future in New York.
ByTom Urtz Jr.
New York Rangers v Columbus Blue Jackets
New York Rangers v Columbus Blue Jackets | Kirk Irwin/GettyImages

The New York Rangers made significant adjustments to their forward lines at practice on Friday, elevating Pavel Dorofeyev to the top unit and sliding Gabe Perreault to the third line. Yet, despite head coach Mike Sullivan hinting at defense changes earlier in the week, he opted to leave his defense pairings untouched.

While Sullivan remains locked into keeping Adam Fox alongside Vladislav Gavrikov, the rest of the blue line remains an unsolved riddle.

At the center of that equation sits 18-year-old rookie Alberts Smits. The Rangers are determined not to give their prized fifth overall pick too much, too soon. However, the organization is rapidly approaching a critical fork in the road regarding what is best for the rookie's development.

Smits is navigating the steepest learning curve in the NHL

Smits made history in June as the highest-drafted Latvian player in NHL history, capturing the Lars-Erik Sjoberg Award in training camp to earn an opening-night roster spot at age 18.

Through 14 games, however, the NHL learning curve has arrived in full force. Smits has logged 201 minutes at five-on-five, carrying a 39.49 GF%, a 45.4 CF%, and a 42.15 xGF% per Evolving-Hockey. He also ranks dead last among all Rangers defensemen across every underlying possession category.

From a rate perspective, the Blueshirts are generating just 1.74 goals per 60 minutes and conceding 2.67 goals against per 60 with Smits on the ice. While a 2.67 GA/60 rate is acceptable for a teenage rookie thrown into NHL minutes, the complete absence of offensive production is alarming. Smits has played extremely tentative hockey, terrified of making a turnover, and his lack of possession time explains the drought.

The Braden Schneider puck handling anchor

No one should be surprised by Smits' suppressed offensive metrics given his usage. For the vast majority of the season, Smits has drawn the assignment of playing alongside Braden Schneider.

Schneider remains a rugged, physical presence, but he handles the puck like a live grenade. The 25-year-old has always looked uncomfortable on breakouts, routinely rushing off-the-glass flips and throwing panic passes to rid himself of the puck before pressure arrives.

An 18-year-old defenseman trying to find his footing cannot develop his transition game when his partner is incapable of executing clean breakouts. Smits has taken almost no calculated risks up the ice because every broken play immediately turns into a odd-man rush against his pairing.

Why Scott Morrow or Sean Durzi is the necessary next step

If Sullivan genuinely wants to evaluate what Smits can do, he needs to pair him with a mobile, modern puck mover.

Scott Morrow represents the most natural in-house fit as he's a good skater with offensive instincts who can relieve breakout pressure and allow Smits to jump into passing lanes. We saw a brief preview of a different dynamic on Monday against Los Angeles, where Sullivan paired Smits with Sean Durzi during the third period.

Sullivan's primary objective is winning hockey games right now, and his habit of benching Smits for large chunks of the third period proves he doesn't fully trust the rookie in tight games. But leaving an 18-year-old blue-chip prospect to skate nine tentative minutes a night while stapled to an anchor serves nobody.

The Jay Leach alternative waiting in Hartford

If giving Smits a capable puck-moving partner fails to ignite his confidence, Drury and Sullivan must make the tough, mature decision to place him in the AHL.

Hartford Wolf Pack head coach Jay Leach is widely regarded as one of the best developmental teachers in professional hockey. Leach carved out a 12-year playing career through hard-nosed survival, logging 499 AHL games, 180 ECHL games, and 70 NHL contests before stepping behind the bench. He understands the mechanics of defensive detail and positioning, and what it takes to be a professional hockey players.

Sending Smits to Hartford wouldn't be a punishment, and in all actuality, it would be a bit of a relief for him. Allowing him to log 22 minutes a night in all situations, quarterback the first power play unit, make mistakes without getting benched, and build swagger under Leach is vastly superior to watching his confidence wither away on Broadway.

Before making that call, however, Sullivan owes it to Smits to change his partner. Give the rookie a defenseman who can pass the puck, and see what the 18-year-old can truly do. The Rangers play a lot of hockey in November, and the reality of that schedule means the team will need to make the most of their roster. What that ends up meaning for Smits is to be determined soon.

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