Braden Schneider was given every opportunity to succeed this past season, and the 2020 first rounder failed to meet the moment to the point where it felt like his time in New York was coming to an end. Schneider made reference to it on breakup day, but following the results of the NHL Draft lottery, his future remains very much up in the air.
NHL Draft Lottery results could eliminate a potential Schneider suitor
The New York Rangers finished with the third-worst record in the NHL this past season but had the misfortune of being jumped by two teams during the NHL Draft lottery. One team that jumped them was the San Jose Sharks, and they moved up from No. 9 to No. 2 overall. Most mock drafts expect them to take Ivar Stenberg to join a group that is already full of impact forwards, but there's no guarantees that will happen.
I think there are two possibilities in play for San Jose, and it all depends on what the market looks like on draft day. If the Sharks want to, they can just select Chase Reid at No. 2 overall. Reid is a smooth skating 6'2" 187-pound defender who had 48 points in 45 games in the OHL with the Soo Greyhounds, and is committed to play college hockey in the fall. It would be a reasonable choice given their organizational needs.
There's also the possibility that the Sharks trade No. 2 to move down slightly, maybe to No. 3 or No. 4, and they can extract an asset that maybe includes an NHL ready defender given that Vancouver or Chicago could want to add an impact forward like Ivar Stenberg, and that would still create an opportunity to take someone like Reid, Keaton Verhoeff, Carson Carels, or Alberts Smits anyway. It is possible both of those teams would be fine with someone like Caleb Malhotra, but I'd imagine if San Jose will try and make the most from a pick they don't really need and didn't expect to get.
Rangers' draft spot has them in defense zone
While San Jose's standing makes them less likely of a landing spots for Schneider, something that was rumored about near the most recent trade deadline, the Rangers' draft spot could result in Chris Drury drafting Schneider's long-term replacement.
It is unknown how the draft board will break out after No. 1 overall. The Rangers have a number of different needs, and the draft is the best way to do that given the poor free agency market. In a perfect world the Rangers would have finished No. 1 or No. 2 and had been able to snag McKenna or Stenberg, but that wasn't meant to be.
Reid would be a great right-handed defender to add, but he's unlikely to fall. Malhotra is a promising center with upside, but his stock has been rising at a rapid rate. That means that the Rangers could be in a range where their options include Verhoeff (RHD), Carels (LHD), or Smits (LHD), assuming that no trades are made to change the draft order.
While none of those players are ready to step in right away, given Schneider's proximity to free agency, there would be no good reason to sign him to a deal of consequence when the organization would have yet another defender on the horizon to step in on a tremendous discount. While the Rangers still need bodies for the upcoming season, they likely would try and sell high on the idea of Schneider and what he represents.
Situation will remain in a holding pattern for now
At this point there still remain a lot of unknowns, and there remains a slight possibility that the Rangers kick that can down the road by bringing Schneider back for one year. Next season is largely inconsequential in the larger context of what the Rangers are doing post Letter 2.0, but it is important for them to have an outline of a roster where fans can see how close they are to contending. The team needs to build responsibly, and also make sure they don't waste Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin's remaining prime years.
Fans are understandably disapointed with the results of the season, and the draft lottery, and Drury needs to give them a reason to continue supporting the team, and convince them that showing up to Madison Square Garden will be worth their while.
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