In an ideal world, the New York Rangers would have had won one of the two draft lotteries held, because it would have made their draft day decision pretty easy. Landing the No. 1 overall pick would have locked them into Gavin McKenna, and locking them into No. 2 would have given them a choice of a few amazing options.
That they are picking first at No. 5 overall creates a situation where they are essentially at the mercy of other teams hoping a player drops. Such a scenario could also create room for the Rangers to try and big brain it by picking a player who fills a position of need. With center a major area of need, the Rangers would love to draft someone like Caleb Maholtra, but with him expected to go within the first four picks, they need to avoid the temptation of drafting his teammate Tynan Lawrence.
Why Lawrence would be a reach at No. 5
Lawrence is an intriguing 6'0" and 185 pound center prospect who is ranked seventh in Elite Prospects consolidated ranking, and has appeared as high as No. 4 on a few of the lists that are factored into those rankings. He started the season with the Muskegon Lumberjacks of the USHL, and then joined Boston University for 18 NCAA games.
Lawrence had 17 points in 13 games in the USHL this year, and the year prior he finished with 54 points in 56 regular season games along with 18 points in 14 playoff games which resulted in him winning MVP of the playoffs. The adjustment to NCAA hockey was a little difficult for Lawrence, which is understandable, and he scored two goals and added five assists for seven total points.
Thus far as a prospect, Lawrence has shown to be a hard worker, a smart player who reads the game well, a good skater, but he's not yet been able to be a primary driver and impact player. He often looks like he's doing a lot, but doesn't have the output to reward his efforts. There's nothing wrong with this, and he still has a ton of time to develop, but you can see the difference between him and some of the other highly touted forwards in this draft and what they've been able to produce.
New York needs to improve their prospect pipeline down the middle, but they don't need to reach here. Had the Rangers been picking later on in the first round, nabbing someone like Lawrence would be more sensible.
The Rangers historically have loved grabbing NCAA forwards, especially those with ties to Boston, but the player that best fits that preference is Maholtra, and there's virtually no chance he will be available when it is their turn to pick. That said, they may be better off just taking a defender at No. 5 overall, or just hope one of the other forwards they covet drops if there's a run on defenders to start the draft.
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