The New York Rangers and superstar Artemi Panarin find themselves in a weird, limbo-like state. Panarin is slated to become a UFA at the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Rangers seem stuck in neutral, trying to make headway in the standings.
The prevailing wisdom is that the Rangers and Panarin would like to remain together. It’s not like Panarin is desperate to bolt. Similarly, there’s no indication the Rangers are shopping Panarin. If anything, the Rangers and Panarin have a wait-and-see attitude before committing to a new contract.
That’s where the problem lies. The Rangers have shown issues across the lineup despite pleasant surprises like Noah Laba and Conor Sheary. The Blueshirts could use some upgrades and certainly more depth.
But without having cost certainty regarding Panarin’s future in New York, President and GM Chris Drury is pretty much handcuffed. Drury could pull the trigger on a deal or two. But he might run into a cap crunch beyond this season if he’s not careful.
If Drury and the Rangers knew Panarin didn’t want to come back next season, the club could confidently explore the trade market for the 34-year-old, knowing that his $11.5 million cap hit would be available to them next season and beyond.
Conversely, if Panarin was willing to sign now, the Rangers would know exactly how much money they could play with. But as insider Pierre LeBrun noted in an October 31 piece in The Athletic, Panarin isn’t likely to sign a short-term deal.
If anything, the Russian star wants to get one last big payday. That situation means there won’t be any hometown discounts a la Connor McDavid in Edmonton. Signing a two-year, team-friendly deal would put Panarin at 36 for his next deal. That situation not only reduces the term he could land at that point, but it could also significantly impact his overall value.
Imagine Panarin having a couple of down years in 2026 and 2027. That could zap any leverage he might have in future negotiations, be it with the Rangers or anyone else.
Rangers face similar situation to another Cup contender
The Colorado Avalanche got a major monkey off their backs by signing Martin Necas last week. The uncertainty surrounding Necas’ contract situation kept the Avalanche in a holding pattern. Most importantly, the Avalanche needed cost certainty ahead of the next “nuclear explosion” that will come with Cale Makar’s upcoming contract.
Of course, the Rangers don’t have a “nuclear explosion” of their own. In fact, most of their stars are locked up for the next few seasons. But it’s the lack of cost certainty that’s holding the Rangers back. And it won’t be until they figure out the Panarin situation that they won’t be able to move the chains.
Think about it.
Let’s suppose the Calgary Flames make Nazem Kadri available. That’s a $7 million cap hit that will be added to the team’s books. What about Brayden Schenn? That’s $6.5 million.
The crunch may be this season as the Blueshirts have about $3 million in available space. But what about moving forward? Let’s say that Panarin wants a raise from his current deal. How would adding another $6 million or $7 million impact that number?
From a business perspective, operating under assumptions leads to dangerous territory. You can never assume that some will or won’t happen because it may never occur. You can’t assume you will make X amount of money until it hits your bank account.
That’s where the Rangers find themselves. Until Artemi Panarin lets the club know where he stands, the Rangers won’t be able to make moves. Things can change quickly. Fans may get a better understanding of where this situation leads in the coming weeks.
In the meantime, the Rangers will have to sink or swim with the current lineup they’ve got.