National Hockey League training camps will open up in just a few weeks, and the New York Rangers are a team with more players at their disposal than they have spots in their lineup. The biggest openings right now involve the forwards, and third-line roles if you want to really drill it down. There is one promising youngster who is essentially entering training camp with everything on the line, because if they fail to grab a spot now, their NHL future will likely continue with another organization.
Othmann hasn't lived up to his draft position
Brennan Othmann was drafted 16th overall at the 2021 National Hockey League draft, and four years later there's not much to show for the pick. It might seem harsh but Wyatt Johnston (23rd overall), Zachary Bolduc (17th overall), Logan Stankoven (47th overall), and Matthew Knies (57th overall) are just an example of players who are already making an impact at the NHL level. Othmann's major claim to fame thus far is a line of 33-36-69 in 94 AHL games.
Othmann's inability to breakthrough is partially bad luck, and also partially an inability to execute in the opportunities that have been provided to him. He's proven to be too good for the AHL, so if he fails to make the opening night lineup the Rangers will be in a spot where they likely will try and trade him before his value as a prospect diminishes anymore.
He has an opportunity, but this will be his last one
Per Evolving-Hockey, Othmann posted a 70.06 goals for percentage, a 53.51 Corsi for percentage, and a 51.69 expected goals for percentage this past season. The Rangers as a team scored 3.41 goals for per 60 minutes, and conceded just 1.46 against. These numbers came during just 214 minutes at 5v5, and in 22 total games he had just a pair of assists while averaging 9:58 per game. It is quite possible that his decent underlying metrics won't continue across a larger sample and against better competition, and that's what the team will try to learn in training camp. If this is the player Othmann truly is, he should have no problem earning a spot.
Othmann faces tough competition
The front office can look at what Othmann has done in Hartford and hope it translates, and they likely are comparing him to Brett Berard. Berard was a fifth round draft pick who has shown to be too good for the AHL at this point of his career, and in 35 NHL games has a line of 6-4-10 in 10:43 per game. Berard's performance, all while standing 5'9" and weighing 175 pounds, has been very impressive. He has proven to be the better NHL player at this point, and therefore likely has a leg up in the competition for a bottom-six spot.
The stat that screams out in a big way is Berard tallying 59 shots on goal on 108 total attempts. Othmann, who earned praise after being drafted for having an NHL ready shot, had 20 shots on goal on 49 attempts. The lack of aggressiveness and trying to score stood out, and that's something that will need to change too.
Othmann has the tools to be an effective player under new head coach Mike Sullivan, but it remains to be seen if he will have a spot in the lineup. He isn't a player you want on the fourth line, so based on how that top-six is expected to shake out, it really is third line or bust for Othmann. The problem, as already mentioned, is there are many players on Othmann's level who are either better or more important to the organization, and that makes training camp very important for him.
Othmann still has some prospect shine on him, and has looked fine in the AHL and has a decent track record from his time in the OHL, but that isn't going to last much longer. This feels like his last chance of becoming a New York Ranger, and even though it sounds harsh, it's hard to see him carve out a path if he doesn't get the job done over the next couple of weeks.