The New York Rangers need to make upgrades to their roster ahead of the 2025-26 season if they wish to return to Stanley Cup contender status, and one realistic option that would take them to the next level is projected to hit the free agent market on July 1st. This player would be a near-perfect fit for the Rangers, a franchise that still has yet to fill the void created when winger Pavel Buchnevich was dealt to the St. Louis Blues.
If you didn't know based on the headline, or by looking at the accompanying photo, the player in question is Nikolaj Ehlers. Ehlers, 29, has spent the entirety of his career with the Winnipeg Jets, and it feels like he's never been fully given an opportunity to prove himself. The Jets want to keep him around, but it wouldn't be shocking to see him join a team that gives him the best chance to finally flourish.
Before getting into Ehlers and what he brings to the table, I'd like to point out how this could even be realistic for the Rangers. Evolving-Hockey releases contract projections for free agents each year, and historically they have been pretty accurate, especially for 2024's free agent class. This offseason is the first in a while that the salary cap is experiencing a meaningful jump, so there is always a chance that can't be accounted for. That said, their model projects the likliest deal for Ehlers to sign as a a seven-year deal with a cap hit of $8,888,000.
That number may feel like a tough one to fit in, but given the Rangers' rumored interest in moving Chris Kreider, it could work. If the Rangers moved Kreider for prospects and/or draft picks, they'd open up $6.5 million in space which they could use in their pitch to Ehlers. The rest of their other business would be tight, but adding someone like Ehlers is way more realistic than Mitch Marner, the top free agent of this year's class who could make $13 million a year or more. Even if Ehlers were to make up to $10 million, he's a player worth creating room to sign, and then figuring out the rest later.
Ideal roster building involves making the top of your roster as strong as can be, and then pushing down existing talent into lower spots of the lineup to solidify your depth. In recent years it feels like the Rangers have overvalued their existing talent and added depth to support them, when the strategy should have been the opposite.
Who is Nikolaj Ehlers?
Ehlers tallied 24 goals, 39 assists, and 63 points in 69 games this season for the Jets skating 15:48 a night. In 674 regular season games he's scored 225 goals and tallied 295 assists for 520 points averaging about 16:26 per game. For the majority of his career he's graded out as first line winger, and that's impressive considering he's done that with third liner ice time.
His underlying numbers are very solid, and here's what he's done the last three seasons via Evolving-Hockey.
2024-25: 63.81 GF% | 53.84 CF% | 55.41 xGF%
2023-24: 64.92 GF% | 55.27 CF% | 55.06 xGF%
2022-23: 56.02 GF% | 56.32 CF% | 55.79 xGF%
These numbers are very strong, and the Rangers are in a dire need of more forwards who can control the game, push play, and drive possession. In many ways, Ehlers brings many of the things to the table that Buchnevich did before he was dealt to St. Louis. Ehlers is a left wing, but adding him to the mix would rise the team's overall talent, and would be an insurance policy in the event the Blueshirts decide to move on from Artemi Panarin as opposed to signing him to a contract extension.
Adding Ehlers would also give the team some security on wing if the front office decided to try and make a blockbuster trade that required them to part with a winger such as Alexis Lafrenière or Gabe Perreault. The Blueshirts won't just give them away, but if there's an opportunity for them to add an impact center or defenseman to give the team someone else closer in ability to Adam Fox, it is possible teams would ask about them. Having Ehlers to step in would soften the blow a bit.
Ehlers is a very strong skater, and one of the league's fastest skaters at that. This past season he was in the 94th percentile for top speed, the 91st percentile for 22+ mile per hour bursts, and the 85th percentile for 20 to 22 mile per hour bursts via the NHL's EDGE analytics. He also graded out nicely for shots on goal, goals, and shot speed, and his shooting percentage being on the low side suggests that he could be due for some positive regression.
Team speed has been an issue for the Rangers, and the addition of Ehlers would help in a few different ways. Offensively, it would help the Rangers generate more rush chances for. Right now the team doesn't have as many options who can move up the ice and create their own end-to-end rushes and catch the defense off guard, and Ehlers would add another layer to the team's attack. Defensively speaking, having a skater like Ehlers would allow the Blueshirts to be more aggressive on their forecheck. While not as strong in that area as Buchnevich was, he can still be a help to the team.
A forecheck is successful when you have a strong skater who can apply pressure on the puck carrier, and in order to do that you need someone who can keep up with them. If you don't have skater who can do that, more often than not you will be a bit more passive and try and disrupt something in the neutral zone or force a dump and chase. This is one of the things that Buchnevich did that wasn't valued enough until you realized the Rangers were missing it when he was gone. The same could be said about Kaapo Kakko's presence in the defensive zone and neutral zone, with the biggest difference being that he did have as high an offensive accumen as Buchnevich.
Ultimately the Rangers need to decide what their immediate goal is under new head coach Mike Sullivan. It is possible the team tries to win right away, and this season is all about evaluating how far they can go as currently constructed. Another option could see the team try and maximize the next few years while Fox and Igor Shesterkin are at the top of their game, and before older players like J.T. Miller, Zibanejad, and Panarin start to lose a step. In both cases Ehlers would be a great fit, and only adds to why he's a top target worth pursuing.
Part of the reason Ehlers could be attainable is that it may be easy for teams to overlook him because his top line numbers don't appear to be all that impressive. I'd argue that what Ehlers has accomplished, albeit with limited ice time, makes him a perfect candidate to target. This offers the Rangers a bit of a "buy low" opportunity. Make no mistake, there could and should be other teams to show interest in Ehlers, and a bidding war could be a challenge. But Ehlers is a name that deserves consideration and is well worth freeing up cap space for.