Three factors that will decide if the Rangers make or miss the playoffs this season

Just how much damage can one bad year do to a team? That’s what the New York Rangers have to find out now. They’ve got a new bench boss in Mike Sullivan, and on paper, the playoffs look possible. Yet if we’re being honest, this team has to prove a lot before anyone puts them back in the contender category. Stick taps to Blueshirt Banter for the idea. So here we go: Three reasons the Rangers could miss the playoffs and three reasons they could make it. let's dive in.

3 reasons the Rangers might miss the playoffs:

1. Can Alexis Lafrenière find his game again?:

If you just skimmed Laf’s stat line last year—15 goals, 40 points—you’d probably shrug. Not terrible. Yet, dig deeper, and it’s frustrating. He was supposed to build on his 28-goal breakout the year before, especially after signing that seven-year, $7.45 million deal. Instead, he slid backward. What makes it sting is how electric he looked in 2023–24. He wasn’t just producing, but  driving play. He was one of the best rush players in the league, constantly creating chances and pushing the pace. In the playoffs, he was second on the team in goals and points, and by some measures, he was their most dangerous forward. He looked ready to take that long-awaited leap.

Yet in 2024–25? Nothing. No power play bump, no extra gear. Just fine. Fine isn’t good enough when you’re banking on a No. 1 pick to be a difference-maker. To Sullivan’s credit, he’s giving Lafrenière every chance—he’s starting on PP1 and will be back on the Panarin–Trocheck line. If it clicks, it changes the whole picture. If it doesn’t, we’re right back where we started.

2. Special Teams Are a Disaster:

Here’s the ugly truth: the Rangers lived off their power play for years. It was their safety net, their identity. Last year, it completely fell apart. They ranked 28th in the league, converting at a rate of just 17.6%. Think about that. With Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Adam Fox, they were one of the worst power plays in hockey. The PK was okay—11th—but not at its usual standard. Combine that with a mediocre even-strength game, and you have a recipe for losing hockey. The hope is David Quinn, back as Sullivan’s top assistant, fixes it. He turned around Pittsburgh’s PP last year, and now he has J.T. Miller in the mix. Yet, if the man advantage doesn’t return to being a weapon, this team has no margin for error.

3. The Stars Stumble, and Kids Look Like Babies: 

Here’s the hard part to admit: the Rangers’ “star power” isn’t bulletproof anymore. Panarin is still elite, but his scoring dip last year exposed how much they rely on him. Zibanejad looked washed early in the season before rebounding. Trocheck’s numbers dipped. Depth down the middle is shaky, and while everyone’s excited about Noah Laba, who will make his debut in Tuesday's season-opener, Gabe Perreault, Brennan Othmann, and Brett Berard, they still have to prove themselves in the show.

Without secondary scoring, the stars have to carry the load—and if they don’t, the whole thing crumbles. On defense, it’s the same story. Adam Fox with Gavrikov should stabilize things, but beyond that? Will Borgen, Carson Soucy, and a banged-up Braden Schneider don’t exactly scream “shutdown unit” or even puck-moving exporters; this team’s flaws get exposed fast. However, there's still much to smile about entering the franchise's centennial season.

3 reasons why the Rangers will make the playoffs

1. Mike Sullivan changes everything:

Sullivan isn’t just another new voice behind the bench, but an elite coach with receipts. Two Stanley Cups, the winningest coach in Penguins history, and he’s coaching Team USA at the 2026 Olympics. But more than the resume, he’s bringing something the Rangers have been desperate for: accountability. Gerard Gallant never had it; Peter Laviolette’s system fell apart, but Sullivan is already saying the right things, holding players to higher standards, and building genuine relationships with the ones who matter most.

What’s different is how he wants the Rangers to play. Forget the passive 1-3-1 trap Laviolette ran, where the forecheck died and teams skated through us like pylons. Sullivan wants New York to be the aggressor, a swarming, layered 1-2-2 forecheck where everyone’s connected. F1 pressures, the next two guys cut off passing lanes, the D steps up, and suddenly the ice tilts in our favor. He’s taken pages from the reigning two-time Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers, a team that smothers you until you crack. Sullivan’s defensive-zone system is built on predictability; every guy has a quadrant, and every guy knows where to be. No more endless breakdowns or chasing ghosts. If this team buys in, they’ll stop relying on Igor Shesterkin to be Superman between the pipes every single night. That alone could swing the season.

2. Adam Fox, back in Norris form.  

Fox is the kind of defenseman who makes you forget how broken the rest of the blue line is. Last year was rough, his lowest ice time since his rookie year, and you could feel the impact. He just wasn’t himself. Yet, if Fox plays to his ceiling, none of it matters. He’s that good. With Vladislav Gavrikov in the mix, Fox could finally get the partner he needs. If Gavrikov’s his running mate, Fox gets the freedom to attack, join the rush, and tilt the ice like he used to. If Gavrikov slots on the second pair, Fox still benefits by not having to carry the entire D-core’s defensive burden. Regardless, more Fox is good news, because when he’s at his best, he doesn’t just make plays, he controls games and is the kind of player who can single-handedly drag a team back into the playoff picture.

3.The kids finally step up — and the stars bounce back:

Let's dream shall we? Braden Schneider locks into a top-four role, Lafrenière takes the next step, and Laba, Berard, Perreault, and Will Cuylle, rising to the moment would change everything. The stars need to bounce back, too. Panarin in a contract year will drive play, Zibanejad was hot in the second half, and should feed off of that. Trocheck’s numbers should rebound with a better power play, and captain Miller gives them a real one-two punch down the middle. If the youth steps up, core delivers, and Igor is his usual self along with Sullivan’s structure, that’s a group built to do more than just sneak into the playoffs.