Regarding the rivalry between Team USA and Team Canada, the Canadiens hold the historical edge. They've long been the dominant force in international hockey, with countless Olympic and World Championship gold medals. The United States pinnacle golden moments are fewer and farther between — the 1960 Olympics, 1980 Olympics and the 1996 World Cup stand as their crowning achievements. They've often fallen short to Canada in big games like the 2002 and 2010 Olympic finals.
Yet Thursday's 4 Nations Face-Off showdown at TD Garden in Boston, which crowns the first best on best international champion since 2016, is a different story. It's about two nations loaded with superstars clashing on American ice with everything on the line. After the absolute war that was Saturday's 3-1 U.S. win in Montreal, which saw three fights in the first nine seconds, this rematch is set to be an instant classic.
If you're a New York Rangers fan, there's even more reason to be hyped. Adam Fox and Chris Kreider are playing massive roles for Team USA, and alongside with J.T. Miller and Vincent Trocheck, they could be the X-factors that tilt the title in America's favor.
Two Rangers to Watch: Adam Fox and Chris Kreider
Fox, the Norris Trophy-winning blueliner is the backbone of Team USA's defense. Fox's elite vision and passing ability drive the team's transition game, helping generate scoring chances off the rush. Defensively, his IQ and positioning are crucial for shutting down Canada's top forwards — especially Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, and Nathan MacKinnon.
Adam Fox on the USA's finals matchup with Canada in the 4 Nations Face-Off Tournament:
— Rangers Videos (@SNYRangers) February 19, 2025
"This is probably the most jacked up I've been for a game." pic.twitter.com/Oi4jDmcOyQ
A power forward with speed to burn, Kreider's role is to wreak havoc in front of Canada's net. His net-front presence is key to Team USA's success, and ability to capitalize on rebounds could be the difference in a tight game. His chemistry with Trocheck on the fourth line with Brock Nelson will bring a physical, relentless checking unit that can also contribute offensively.
CHRIS KREIDER, 35 SECONDS IN THE USA TAKES THE LEAD 🦅 pic.twitter.com/TyREC1M7nJ
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) February 18, 2025
A quick look at the stats show why the USA is favored to win. Let's examine the key metrics that could decide who claims Hockey Supremacy.
Connor Hellebuyck has been lights-out for the Americans between the pipes, posting a .943 save percentage and allowing just 1.33 goals per game. Compare that to Canada's Jordan Binnington, who has a .887 save percentage and 2.67 goals against average. Hellebuyck's .952 inner-slot save percentage gives the U.S. a clear advantage when stopping high-danger chances. If Hellebuyck plays like he has all tournament, Canada will have a tough time scoring. Both teams average 3.33 goals per game, but Team USA is creating better opportunities, with 19.33 scoring chances compared to Canada's 17.33 — and 13.33 inner-slot attempts versus Canada's 8.67. The American speed is their bread and butter, creating 4.67 odd-man rushes and two breakaway attempts per game. They'll have the upper hand if they can exploit Canada's defense in transition.
One thing 🇺🇸USA has done far better than other teams in the tournament - quick passes at the offensive blueline to create off-the-rush. USA with more than double the number of chances off pass entries than anyone else and a far greater percentage leading to scoring chances... pic.twitter.com/jJSTn1PhtX
— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) February 20, 2025
Defensively, Team USA holds a +2.00 goal differential per game compared to Canada's +0.33. Their expected goal differential (+1.21) is also significantly higher than Canada's (+0.02), indicating they control play more consistently through their physicality. The Americans have excelled at limiting shots from dangerous areas, holding opponents to 1.67 high-danger chances per game in the round-robin.
While Canada has a slight edge in possession time (52.4% to USA's 48.8%), recover more pucks in the offensive zone (91.7 per game), and completes more passes (379 per game to USA's 355.7), USA's higher faceoff win rate (55.1% to 53.9%) and better defensive discipline suggest they can withstand Canada's pressure. If the Americans can control the dots and disrupt Canada's offensive rhythm, they'll limit their ability to sustain pressure in the offensive zone.
It's the perfect storm of talent, stakes, and a rivalry finals clash that may be talked about for generations. On one side, you have McDavid, Crosby, and MacKinnon looking to reclaim Canada's crown. Conversely, Matthews, Eichel, and the Tkachuk brothers are ready to lead the U.S. to a monumental victory on home ice.
USA Hockey so long overlooked by the national media is now the lead story, even garnering a call from President Donald J. Trump. The stripes have been building towards this championship — winning conseutive World Juniors titles and three of the last five. These NHL players have a chance to an inspire the next genereation of hockey fans and stars in the country just like the 1980 heroes did for the 1996 champions, who captivated the 2025 version. For Canada, they're seeking to protect the throne of the game they built.
It's for country, for glory, and owners of hockey. Two nations, one border, one prize, and one king of hockey.