Tye Kartye’s unexpected scoring surge has officially elevated the 25-year-old forward into a legitimate middle-six role for the New York Rangers. After being claimed off waivers from the Seattle Kraken, many expected him to be nothing more than a depth piece. Sure, he put up decent numbers last season, recording five goals and nine assists for 14 points in 24 games. But many saw him as a bottom-six or depth player. There was not much hope that he could become a consistent producer at the NHL level.
But so far this season, Kartye has surpassed everyone's expectations. In 19 games this season, he has racked up six goals and seven assists for 13 points. He ranks second on the team in goals and in the top five in assists and points. This strong play has earned him a promotion to the second line. With him only being 25 years old, there is optimism that he can continue to develop. We could see him become a solid middle-six forward.
Tye Kartye can become a solid middle six forward for the Rangers
While Kartye's counting stats have been great this season, his underlying metrics are a bit underwhelming.
5v5 Metric | Rate | Context |
|---|---|---|
Corsi For % (CF%) | 48.01% | Below league average |
Scoring Chances For % (SCF%) | 46.97% | Conceding more chances than generating |
Expected Goals % (xG%) | 48.48% | Indicates potential shooting regression |
According to Natural Stat Trick, he has a 48.01 CF%, a 46.97 SCF%, and a 48.48 xG%. All of these stats are below league average. They indicate he is allowing more scoring chances than he is creating. It also shows that this success might be more of the result of luck rather than actual ability, and he might not be able to keep it up over the whole season.
While the metrics are a concern, they are the best he has posted in a season. He has seen at least a five-point jump in most of his metrics. This shows that he is making genuine improvement in his offensive abilities. That his play is improving, and while it's not at the level we hoped, it's a step in the right direction. There is no reason not to believe that, with him being as young as he is, he can continue to grow and improve those metrics.
He is also getting second-line minutes, which will be huge for his development. The more ice time he gets, the more opportunities he will get to make plays and generate offense. Playing alongside J.T. Miller and Pavel Dorofeyev will help as well. Miller is a great playmaker and puck mover, which should set Kartye up for scoring opportunities. With Dorofeyev being a shoot-first player, Kartye can play near the goalie and get rebound opportunities.
Even if we are seeing the ceiling of Kartye's offensive abilities, he still can be a good third-line player. He has been described as a gritty "sandpaper" type of player. The type of player who is not afraid to be physical and lead a defense-first line. Putting him alongside Noah Laba and Will Cuylle would create a shutdown line for the Rangers. One that can neutralize any opponent's offensive attack.
At this point, the ceiling for Kartye is a strong middle-six forward. Someone who provides enough offense to be on the second line, as well as the physicality to be on a shutdown line.
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