The New York Rangers have not had a December worthy of remembering, and with the losses piling up it's a good time to look at areas where the team needs significant improvement. The Rangers find themselves in a bit of a quandary, as one player who was vital for them in the month of November is now dragging them down. The sudden drop-off is hard to ignore, and hopefully the latest recalls lead to line shakeups which can get Vincent Trocheck going again.
Trocheck's return to lineup was a shot in the arm, and the effects have faded away
Trocheck made his return to the lineup in November, and in 11 games he scored five goals and added five assists for 10 points while skating 20:17 a game. In that timeframe Trocheck posted a GF% of 55.85, a CF% of 56.1, and an underwhelming 44.59 xGF%. That chasm between his actual results and expected results has finally caught up with Trocheck, and it is no wonder that he's struggled in December.
The Rangers' alternate captain has appeared in eight games thus far, and he's tallied just four assists and put 13 shots on goal without finding the back of the net. Trocheck is now averaging 22:35 a game, and the increased role and workload hasn't done him any favors. In nearly 125 minutes at 5v5, Trocheck has a ghastly 32.32 GF%, a 43.23 CF%, and a 43.23 xGF%.
For those keeping score at home, his GF% is down 23.53, his CF% is down 12.87, and his xGF% is down 1.36. That Trocheck's expected goals percentage is practically the same makes sense, and it suggests his success in November was a bit of a lucky hot streak propelled by a return to the lineup. The Rangers have also played some tougher competition, although there have also been games that should have been a cake walk for them.
What to takeaway from Trocheck's advanced metrics
While not an exact science, expected goals for percentage is an important stat to look at for a player, because there have been numerous occasions where a player has done all the right things and not been rewarded. Conversely, there's been cases where a player goes on a heater where their GF% is through the roof despite having a poor xGF%. There's also another stat worth looking at known as PDO.
Trocheck's PDO in December (a combination of 5v5 shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage) is 96.6, which suggests that he's been a bit unlucky. He's yet to score a goal this month, and that certainly plays a role. But he hasn't exactly done anything to suggest he should be scoring goals, as highlighted by his xGF%.
His PDO in November was 104.87, and buoyed by an absurd shooting percentage of 19.5 percent which compensated for a paltry .854 on-ice save percentage. The ideal PDO number is around 100, and anything too far above that is considered lucky, and anything too far under that is considered unlucky. It's been a tale of two months for Trocheck, and the Rangers need him to get back on track.
How the Rangers can try and get Trocheck back on track
It is possible that Trocheck could benefit from a demotion to the third line and weaker competition to get back on track, and that could work if Mika Zibanejad and J.T. Miller were used at center ahead of him. The Rangers are at their best when Trocheck is producing and driving play, and for whatever reason things aren't working right now.
With that being the case, it would make sense for Mike Sullivan to shake things up, and see if Trocheck improves playing away from his best friend. There's a chance that Miller is tanking Trocheck's numbers, and I mention this because his slash line includes a 39.38 GF%, a 44.68 CF%, and a 49.14 xGF% this December.
With Gabe Perreault being recalled from Hartford, there's also a chance that a top-six line could be made with him and youngster Noah Laba on the same line. I wouldn't bank on it, but it's an option the Rangers haven't tried yet. That would free up Trocheck for third-line duty, a position that may benefit him for a short while.