Going into the 2024-25 season, the expectations for the New York Rangers and Igor Shesterkin specifically were very high. Many saw Shesterkin as the Vezina favorite after a stellar playoffs where he was second in save percentage with a .927 SV% and first in goals saved expected with a 15.62 GSAx, per Evolving Hockey. During the first month of the season, Shesterkin was every bit of amazing as you'd expect from him; Igor was second in GSAx behind Lukas Dostal of Anaheim, and fifth in SV%. But then it all started to fall apart, for the team and himself. Now signed to the richest contract a goalies ever seen, Igor is coming off of career lows in his base stats such as goals against average, save percentage, and his second lowest in wins. But there shouldn't be panic around the All-Star goaltender just yet.
Shesterkin was in a tough spot that even his brilliance couldn't overcome
When we delve deeper into things, we can see that Shesterkin was in one of the worst situations in the NHL for a goaltender. During 5v5 play this past season, the Rangers were sixth to last in expected goals against, third to last in high danger Corsi against, per Natural Stat Trick. While Shesterkin himself was fifteenth to last among all goaltenders in his expected save percentage with a 89.27 xSV%, via Advanced Hockey Stats; and per NHL Edge, Igor faced 498 high danger shots against, which is the most in the NHL by a country mile.
What this means is that during Shesterkin's starts, if you replaced Igor with an average goaltender they would save about 89.3 percent of the shots they face. To add, Shesterkin saw the second highest expected goals against facing about 197 xGA, which is fifteen higher than Lukas Dostal who faced the third highest xGA and only one below Sam Montembeault who faced the most, via Evolving Hockey.
Shesterkin's advanced metrics reflect that he's still an upper echelon goaltender
Despite the circumstance he was in, Shesterkin still put up borderline elite analytics. According to Evolving Hockey, Igor's 28.59 GSAx was sixth among all goalies (and only 0.25 behind Andrei Vasilevskiy) and his 3.8 wins above replacement were eleventh among all goalies. So what went wrong with the Rangers defense that made Igor Shesterkin look as vulnerable as he did? Well, under Peter Laviolette, the Rangers played man on man, which simply means the defending players had to follow the offensive players while defending in their zone. The Rangers simply could not keep up which led to constant Grade A oppurtunites for opposing offenses, and in short left Igor Shesterkin out to dry.
But out goes Laviolette and his coaching staff, and in comes Mike Sullivan. Vince Mercogliano now of The Athletic wrote back in May that Sullivan's defensive system is expected to be a more much aggressive zone defense, players are expected to be quick moving the puck on breakouts and in transition. Newly acquired defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov will also help lead the charge in overhauling the defense. Gavrikov was the top defenseman available in free agency, and for good reason. Gavrikov is seen as one of, if not the best defensive defenseman in the league thanks to his high IQ, just like Adam Fox and former Ranger Ryan McDonagh all those years ago. With this overhaul on the defensive side of the puck, Igor Shesterkin's life should be easier. So do not worry about the mess that occurred last season, the Igor we're accustomed to seeing for so long will be back stronger and perhaps better than ever.