As New York Rangers forward Michael Grabner continues to rack up points, many pundits have argued he is Kevin Klein 2.0. Klein posted absurd shooting percentages in the 2014-15 and 2015-16 campaigns despite being a defensive defensemen for his career. Grabner’s high shooting percentage is indicative of talent, not luck
Michael Grabner has been a monster for the New York Rangers, and many are trying to slay the giant using Kevin Klein as an example. Klein posted unbelievable shooting percentages each of the past two seasons, while this season he has struggled to find the net. Arguments have been popular in favor of dealing Grabner, with Klein being used as evidence.
Perhaps Klein can be used as evidence to trade Nick Holden, whose style of play is similar and has also scored more than expected. But Michael Grabner and Kevin Klein are two tremendously different players, and Michael Grabner’s talent is not being appreciated nearly enough.
Career Outlooks
First, it is important to recognize the players Grabner and Klein are supposed to be. Grabner has a 30-goal season under his belt, and has always had offensive upside. Last season the Toronto Maple Leafs often commented about how he would be a lethal scorer if he could finish on his chances.
That was on the worst team in hockey, so the chances were rare and weak when they happened.
Kevin Klein is a career-long defensive defenseman, who barely scored in juniors. At no point did anyone expect Klein to be a scorer, so when he started piling up goals it was a surprise.
Thus, Grabner can be considered an offensive threat, but Klein must not be looked at under that scope.
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Shot Types
To provide evidence for this article, we looked at every goal scored by Michael Grabner this season, and every goal scored by Kevin Klein in his two huge seasons.
Klein scored nine goals from the area around the blue line, four goals on wrist shots, three goals on odd man rushes, one goal on a deflection, and one goal on a net mouth scramble.
Grabner scored nine goals on breakaways, four goals on wrist shots, four empty net goals, two odd man rush goals, two goals on deflections, two rebounds, and two one timers. Zero of his goals came from the area around the blue line.
Whereas Klein’s goals were largely based on goaltenders failing to read his slapshots, Grabner’s goals have come in a variety of ways. One night he will score via the breakaway, another he will pot an empty netter, and playing alongside Kevin Hayes and J.T. Miller has allowed him to score on his fair share of one timers and deflections as well.
Michael Grabner is a legitimate offensive threat surrounded by other offensive threats, while Kevin Klein had a slapshot that worked for a little while. There’s a major difference there.
Related Story: Read: Definitive Blue-Print for Michael Grabner's Future With the Rangers
Sustainability
Klein’s ability to use his slap shot as a weapon was bound to stop working. It didn’t work for the majority of his career, so it should never have been expected to work for the long term.
Grabner, however, has always owned offensive ability. Grabner scored over 30 goals in his rookie season, then 20 in the next, and over 10 in the following two. His career shooting percentage is 12.7, and while this year it is 20.8, even if it lowers the Rangers will receive plenty of goals.
It’s important to understand the context of his shooting percentage as well. Grabner is playing with playmakers rather than fourth liners this season, and it’s showing. Additionally, Grabner is tallying scoring chances at an unprecedented rate.
While by math one can argue his shooting percentage is bound to regress, one cannot ignore the context that he has missed on plenty of breakaways as well. Grabner ranks sixth on the Rangers in scoring chances per 60 minutes at even strength, and is not even the highest ranked Ranger in even strength shooting percentage.
What Happens Next
Grabner will see his shooting percentage go down, but it will not go down drastically. We outlined earlier today what the Rangers should do with Grabner, and if they hold onto him for next season there is no harm.
Given the success he has had in Alain Vigneault’s speedy system, a system tailored perfectly for Grabner’s game, the goals should not suddenly stop coming. Expecting a 30 goal season out of him next year would be risky, but 20 goals should be an easy mark to hit as long as he continues to be surrounded with talent.
Additionally, if Grabner somehow loses his offensive capabilities, NHL teams will always line up for a recent 30 goal scorer, assuming Grabner hits that number this year. The Rangers will have no problem moving him if it becomes necessary, but the evidence above shows the necessity should not exist.
Next: Rangers Must Buy and Sell at the Trade Deadline
Michael Grabner is an immensely valuable player to the Rangers organization. Whether he’s traded before the Expansion Draft, at next year’s Trade Deadline, or not at all, expect the goals to keep on coming. He is not Kevin Klein whipping shots from far out, but instead a speedster that can rack up goals in the right system. The New York Rangers system.