The Rangers are likely headed to the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs. In order to have a long spring campaign, they must rely on their hottest line. The line of Grabner-Hayes-Miller need to step up in order for the team to have postseason success.
Kevin Hayes centering JT Miller and Michael Grabner has provided a constant stream of offense for the New York Rangers. Head Coach Alain Vigneault assembled the line early in the season, and has kept it together for the majority of the year.
It’s easy to see why, the line represents 3 of the Rangers’ top 6 point scorers and 3 of the Rangers’ top 5 goal scorers. Also, they are putting up these numbers despite the fact that the trio is typically deployed as the third line.
Boxcar Stats and Team Rankings
(Through 2/25/17)
| Player | GP | G | A | P | Pts/Gm | TOI/Gm | PP TOI/Gm | SH TOI/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JT Miller | 61 | 19 (3) | 28 (T-4) | 47 (1) | 0.77 (T-1) | 16:24 (7) | 1:27 (10) | 1:25 (4) |
| Kevin Hayes | 56 | 15 (5) | 28 (T-4) | 43 (3) | 0.77 (T-1) | 16:53 (4) | 1:32 (9) | 1:28 (3) |
| Michael Grabner | 60 | 26 (1) | 10 (13) | 36 (6) | 0.60 (8) | 14:02 (8) | 0:04 (15) | 1:44 (1) |
(Stats courtesy of NHL.com. Ranks are in parenthesis, Ranking for scoring is out of ALL Rangers skaters, Ranking for TOI is out of Rangers Forwards)
If the Rangers are to make any sort of splash in the playoffs, the third line must continue to provide offense. This is despite not logging the minutes of other key Rangers forwards such as Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan and Rick Nash.
First, the Rangers rely on Hayes, Miller and Grabner to put up points 5 on 5 as opposed to the powerplay. To wit, Hayes and Miller only have one PPG apiece (Grabner has none).
This is vital to a team’s postseason success, because games are called tighter and the majority of time is spent 5 on 5.
Secondly, Miller, Hayes, and Grabner are team leaders in shorthanded ice time. Some analysis by Dept of Hockey Analytics suggests that a team’s regular season penalty kill efficiency correlates to playoff success.
Also, analysis by OnTheForecheck suggests that PK improvement from the regular season to the playoffs is a necessity . Therefore, it is key that Grabner, Miller and Hayes continue to contribute on the PK (along with Jesper Fast).
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Importance of Depth
Depth is absolutely essential for a Stanley Cup contending team. The Rangers’ ability to roll four lines consistently throughout the season has been a key to their offensive success. As a result, the Rangers currently rank 3rd in goals for and 4th in goals per game in the league.
Furthermore, their offense has been able to score by committee. Case in point Miller, who is the aforementioned Rangers leading point scorer, is only tied for 34th in league scoring.
This balanced attack is even more important for a long playoff run because players and entire lines have the tendency to run hot or cold. A different line or player stepping up on a given night helps to mitigate another line’s off-night.
In addition, being deployed as the third line allows Grabner-Hayes-Miller to avoid their opponents’ better defense pairings and forwards. Thus far in the regular season, the results speak for themselves.
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Style of Play
There is some concern about the level of sustainability to the third line’s offense.
First, Grabner and Miller are shooting well above their career average shooting percentages. Currently, Grabner is shooting at 19.7% (vs career average 12.7%). Miller is shooting at 17.4% (vs career average 13.2%).
In addition, the line mostly generates offense off of the rush. This becomes harder and harder to do in the playoffs, as teams tighten up defensively.
However, the line does have the ability to generate scoring chances and goals off of the cycle. Also, their particularly tenacious forecheck is another way they create chances.
Next: New York Rangers’ Dark-Horse Deadline Defensive Solution
A trip to the playoffs looms on the horizon for the New York Rangers. Although the dynamic trio of Grabner, Miller and Hayes has gone cold of late, the Rangers will need to call on them often this spring. Their contributions to the lineup, both offensively and defensively are key to having a shot at winning it all.