The 2015-16 season was one to forget for New York Rangers’ defenseman Marc Staal. Throughout this season, the narrative surrounding Staal has been that he has returned to form of yesteryear. Taking a deeper look, was last season an anomaly and has Staal indeed bounced back?
The longtime duo of defensive stalwarts for the Rangers, Marc Staal and Dan Girardi had a rough 2015-16 season. The two struggled all year, but were not much of a concern to the Rangers coaching staff and front office as the team piled up wins.
Then the Rangers were blown out in the first round of the playoffs by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. The Rangers surrendered 21 goals in those 5 games.
Going into the 2016-17 season, there was significant talk about Staal and Girardi being in position to rekindle their defensive prowess of years past.
As the season has gone on, it appears that Girardi has reverted to his previous form depite being paired with Ryan McDonagh. Staal on the other hand, has held down the second pairing most of the season and has recently been promoted to the first pairing with McDonagh since Girardi has been injured.
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Offense has never been a large part of Marc Staal’s game, earning a reputation as a steady, shutdown defenseman. Last season, Staal posted 2 goals and 13 assists in 77 games; this season Staal has 3 goals and 6 assists through 63 games. (Stats courtesy of NHL.com)
In order to better evaluate Staal’s game, we’re going to take a look at some advanced stats.
5 on 5 Possession
| Season | CF% | NHL Rank | Rel CF% | NHL Rank | SCF% | NHL Rank | GF% | NHL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 46.39 | 160/184 | -2.22 | 140/184 | 50.47 | 81/184 | 51.19 | 76/184 |
| 2015-16 | 45.32 | 175/196 | -2.46 | 139/196 | 43.22 | 185/196 | 49.43 | 106/196 |
(Stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey, Rank is out of defensemen with min 500 min TOI)
Staal has seen a slight bump in several key metrics but his numbers remain relatively the same.
Most curiously, he has seen a significantly jump in his scoring chance percentage. This may be due to the entire team scoring at a higher clip than last year, but a deeper analysis would be needed to truly assess this outlier.
It should also be noted that Staal’s most common partner in 2015-16 was Dan Boyle. This season, he has been paired most often with another #22, Nick Holden.
The fact that (apart from SCF%) Staal’s numbers are relatively the same, despite different partners (and forward configurations) seem to indicate Staal’s play has had approximately the same impact.
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Penalty Kill Performance
Staal also logs important minutes on the Rangers penalty kill, how has he done there?
| Season | SH TOI/Gm | SCA/60 | NHL Rank | xGA/60 | NHL Rank | GA/60 | NHL Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 2:02 | 24.36 | 113/153 | 5.94 | 70/153 | 7.49 | 135/153 |
| 2015-16 | 2:19 | 24.62 | 132/170 | 6.37 | 123/170 | 5.06 | 72/170 |
(Stats courtesy of Corsica.Hockey, Rank is out of defensemen with min 50 min SH TOI)
Despite not being effective recently, the Rangers’ penalty kill is still performing better than last years’ (2015-16: 78.2%, 2016-17 80.1%). This still lands the Rangers in the bottom third of the league penalty kill wise.
It is clear that while he outperformed expectations on the PK (xGA/60 vs GA/60) last season, this season Staal is fairing significantly worse against expectations. Staal is letting up almost the same amount of Scoring Chances that are being converted on at a higher rate.
From just those numbers however, it is unclear whether Staal has been a victim of the penalty kill’s poor play or a key contributor.
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In Conclusion
Staal may be performing better visibly and in the minds of the Rangers front office and coaching staff. Again, with McDonagh’s usual partner, Girardi, being injured, Staal has been called upon to fill his spot on the top pairing.
Despite Girardi’s struggles, which have often landed him under the microscope, Staal has avoided such scrutiny this year. However, his level of play remains about the same compared to last season, indicating this is likely his reality now, especially at age 30.
Perhaps this is due to the play of his partner Holden, who has had an unprecedented offensive season on Staal’s right. Or it may be due to the play of the resurgent offense.
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Either way, it is hard to argue that Staal is worth his annual $5.7MM salary. Due to his reputation and pedigree, Staal might be able to be moved in the upcoming off-season. If not, the Rangers must reevaluate his role on the team in being a top-2 or even top-4 defenseman.