As the New York Rangers entered their first round matchup against the Montreal Canadiens Wednesday night, balanced scoring will be a need. The bottom six group of forwards is where to ensure there is a full attack up front. The fourth line did their job, but Alain Vigneault needs to find the right combination for the rest of the forwards.
The New York Rangers entered Game 1 at the Bell Centre in Montreal hoping to have their goal scoring touch that carried them to this point in the season going. The Rangers averaged 3.38 goals per game through their first 57 games of the season and limped across the finish line with an average of 2.56 in their last 25.
Those numbers were bound to fall off, due to the law of averages. The Rangers top line of Chris Kreider-Derek Stepan-Mats Zuccarello has consistently been the Rangers top line. That line needs no tweaking whatsoever. Mika Zibanejad and Rick Nash are heating up as well. However, as Game 1 showed, goals won’t come as easy as Tanner Glass backhand shots going forward.
Continued Third Line Struggles
Vigneault trotted out the Michael Grabner-Kevin Hayes-J.T. Miller once again last night, as the three have played together for over 350 minutes this season.
Despite an empty net goal from Grabner, success has seemed to have come and gone with this line. The Rangers’ designated third line struggled mightily again as Grabner and Hayes hovered at 30% in possession, and Miller hovered at 45%.
Scoring has seemingly dried up for all three, which isn’t too surprising as most players score in bunches and are rather streaky. However, keeping them together despite this helps no one. Miller scored only 10 points in the last 25 games, Hayes notched just 7 and Grabner had a measly 4 in the same time span.
When looking in depth, the underlying numbers are not strong, either. When together, they post a Corsi-for percentage of 43%. Accounting for scoring chances, they generate chances at a respectable 51% clip, which may be influenced by Grabner’s speed.
New Combinations
At this point, new combinations are a necessity to keep a balanced attack. A combination that has had success in a small sample size is the line of Jesper Fast-Kevin Hayes-Michael Grabner.
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In 95 minutes of time together, they hover at 50% possession and generate scoring chances well at 52%. Vigneault should look into putting these three back together, even if it means taking Fast off the fourth line. It is worth noting that Vigneault has never been afraid to promote Fast in the lineup.
Having Miller play with Nash and Zibanejad would be most ideal. Again using small sample size, after only 63 minutes of ice time together, this specific trio have been dominant together. They have a 56% Corsi for, and with Zibanejad and Miller both having good offensive instincts, they may complement each other as well. They both have the ability to feed Nash the puck, as we know can take over games when he is shooting.
Fourth Line Contributions
The Rangers fourth line of Tanner Glass-Oscar Lindberg-Jesper Fast exceeded almost everyone’s expectations. The trio did exceptional in possession, with Fast and Glass each finishing with a 59% in shot attempts for, and Lindberg with an astounding 65% in the same category at even strength. It is worth noting that Vigneault sheltered zone starts and ice time for Glass.
Glass ended with only 8:01 of ice time and started in the offensive zone 57% of the time. If Vigneault continues to shelter minutes and zone starts like he did for that line, specifically Glass, the fourth line could perhaps continue to be effective.
If Fast were to be moved up to the third line, the most logical choice to replace him on that line would be Jimmy Vesey. This is not a knock on Vesey, whose performance was satisfactory in Game one, as he can add skill to that fourth line if Glass continues to fill in for Pavel Buchnevich. Vesey has shown he can forecheck well at times, and did just that last night.
Assuming the coaching staff is content with keeping the same defense group, a forward group looking like the following could really be effective against the Habs going forward:
Chris Kreider-Derek Stepan-Mats Zuccarello
Rick Nash-Mika Zibanejad-J.T. Miller
Jesper Fast-Kevin Hayes-Michael Grabner
Tanner Glass-Oscar Lindberg-Jimmy Vesey
Next: Rangers Must Exploit Bottom Six Advantage Over Canadiens
The Rangers are going need as much offensive firepower as possible against a strong defensive team in the Canadiens. The best way to do so is to throw everything they’ve got at Carey Price and hope the levee breaks. And it starts with finding the balance in scoring as opposed to relying on two lines, as Stanley Cup contenders need production from everyone.