New York Rangers: Let’s dig into the numbers behind the bad start

Looking back at the New York Rangers’ last awful stretch confuses many. Analytics can give us a clearer picture.

The term “advanced stats” can conjure images of heavy-duty math and inscrutable charts. We’re going to sidestep most of that stuff in this post, though. Instead, we’re going to use a few simple measures to look at where they’ve been unlucky and where they need to improve.

The first thing to note is that all these numbers refer specifically to five on five situations. Even strength ice time makes up most of the game so that’s what analytics like to focus on.

The first number we care about is corsi for percentage (CF%), which counts shot attempts for and against. This is important because it gives us a rough look how much a team has the puck. It tells us the same thing about individual players.

Next comes the simplest of these stats. Goals for percentage (GF%) tells us the portion of goals a team scores out of all goals scored in their games. If the Rangers win a game seven to three, then their GF% for that game is 70%.

Finally, we’ll use Emmanuel Perry of Corsica‘s expected goals for percentage (xGF%). The stat uses a lot of math, but it basically tracks shot quality and quantity to estimate what a team’s GF% should be.

Where the Rangers rank

The Rangers have the seventh worst record in hockey, which makes sense because their GF% of 44.4 is also seventh worst in the league. Both corsi and xGF% have slightly kinder views of the team, though.

New York’s 48.6 CF% places them 12th worst in the league. Perry’s adjusted CF%, which throws out numbers from out of hand games, ranks them 11th worst with a 48.1 CF%. Though neither of those are where Ranger fans want them, they show the Rangers aren’t hopeless.

The Rangers’ xGF% tells the same story. Their xGF% of 48.8 ranks 12th worst in the NHL. These stats argue New York isn’t a Cup contender, but also isn’t completely awful.

What else we can learn

Overall CF% doesn’t tell us much about how a team’s playing stylistically. An elite trapping team and a high flying offensive one can post the same exact CF%.

Luckily, we can also break corsi down into its individual components. Corsi for per 60 (CF/60) tells us how many shot attempts a team averages every 60 minutes. Corsi against per 60 (CA/60) tells us the same ratio except for the shot attempts they give up instead.

What you want to see in a team with a poor CF%, is that they struggle on one side of the puck but grade out quite well on the other. Unfortunately, that’s not the case with the Rangers. Both their CF/60 (10th worst) and CA/60 (12th worst) reflect poorly on their play.

Who needs to play better

Before I get too far in, I’m not going to talk much about xGF% at the individual level. Perry believes CF% carries more value than xGF% when comparing player to player rather than team to team.

Jeff Gorton’s offseason overhaul of the defense should have given the Rangers a set of blue liners capable of driving the play toward the offensive zone. That hasn’t really happened, though.

Only two Ranger defenders boast a CF% above 50 for the season. Rangers captain Ryan McDonagh has made some boneheaded plays, but his CF% stands at 51.2.

Where’s the other guy on that list? He’s in Hartford. Tony DeAngelo carried a 56.2 CF% through eight games before the Rangers sent him to the AHL.

Meanwhile, Nick Holden, Steven Kampfer, and (surprisingly) Brendan Smith all hold a CF% below 46. Neither Holden nor Kampfer ever deserved a regular shift, but Smith does not remotely resemble the player New York received at the trade deadline last season.

At least Marc Staal carries an unexpectedly decent 48.7 CF%, although he may owe some of that to lots of ice time with McDonagh.

Sharing the blame

Ranger forwards need to up their games too. Of the team’s regular forwards, only Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich hold a CF% above 50. Encouragingly, recent call-up Boo Nieves has a CF% of 53.8.

Clearly, Alain Vigneault’s decision to use only three centers backfired. Nieves probably should have come up much sooner.

New York might need another pivot too. Third line center David Desharnais drags the Rangers down with his 45.1 CF% grading the worst among forwards.

Their problems down the middle appear to affect the whole group up front. No forwards boast a CF% even as high as 49 aside from Zibanejad, Buchnevich, and Nieves.

A few reasons for optimism

While the Rangers need to start playing very well to even make the playoffs, they should expect more from a few players going forward. Mats Zuccarello, Chris Kreider, and Kevin Shattenkirk all boast a CF% well below their career averages.

Next: New York Rangers: Looking into home ice struggles

Alain Vigneault could also help the team by improving his player deployment. The Rangers stand to reap major benefits if he decides to give another chance to young players like DeAngelo and Filip Chytil.