New York Rangers:Being realistic with expectations for Jimmy Vesey

The college free agent handpicked the New York Rangers as his team. His role with the team is still unclear through 30 games this season.

Whenever a player is pursued as a free agent without ever playing a game in the NHL, drama follows. The Nashville Predators originally selected Vesey in the third round of the 2012 entry draft. The Boston native stayed at Harvard for three more seasons before announcing he would not report to the Predators and would become a free agent.

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Vesey, after a long recruiting process, chose to sign a two year deal with the Rangers. Vesey’s rookie season was front heavy, 21 of his 27 points came before the start of the 2017 calendar year. This could be attributed to the physical toll of an NHL season in comparison to a college hockey season. The college season is around 30 games, by new years last year, the Rangers had played 38 games.

The forward played a variety of roles last season, he played the top six, on the fourth line and on the power play. He did little to differentiate himself or standout on the ice as a rookie. Vesey was a negative possession player last season and started 51% of the time in the defensive zone.

Being realistic

The Rangers had a dearth of young talent two summers ago when they signed Vesey. The winger was selected as college hockey’s best player in 2016 when he won the Hobey Baker. The college track record combined with the free agent pursuit created unrealistic expectations.

The Rangers are better off having won the Vesey sweepstakes than if he had signed elsewhere. He’s a serviceable NHL player with offensive upside that has above average goal scoring ability.

When compared to the average fourth line winger using Ownthepuck’s metrics, Vesey’s best attribute is five on five goals per hour of ice time (5). The other measures: Five on five primary assists, shots generated per sixty minutes and shots suppressed per sixty minutes rate Vesey as below average.

Vesey is a goal scoring winger with a limited ceiling. As a player who doesn’t generate his own offense, or specialize in shot suppression he will be dependent on players around him.

Optimizing Vesey’s play

There is a way for a player like Vesey to hang around and be a positive contributor even if his possession statistics are negative. Last season, Vesey played a majority of his minutes with Rick Nash and Derek Stepan. Both Stepan and Nash helped elevate Vesey’s game, as a line, they had a Corsi for of 49.89. The Rangers had 40.98%  of shot attempts when Vesey was on the ice away from Stepan and Nash.

Playing with Jesper Fast this season definitely helps Vesey. Fast is a strong shot suppressor and someone who can mask Vesey’s defensive deficiencies. Vesey needs to be sheltered with favorable offensive zone starts and good linemates to play his best game.

What to expect

Finding players Vesey compares to is tricky because of his small sample size. Based on his track record and his stable production over the course of his 111 career games his numbers can be projected. Although his shooting percentage has taken a 3% dive this season he’s still averaging around .33 points per game. Averaged out over an 82 game season this would equal 27 points, his exact total from last year.

This production translates to a role in the Rangers bottom six. With the right linemates, Vesey could fill in in the top six but shouldn’t be playing against other team’s strongest players. A team with a player like Vesey on its fourth line is a team that boasts considerable depth. Strong teams have to be able to roll out four lines late in games to be effective.

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Putting Vesey on the fourth line and giving him a clearly defined role will make expectations more realistic. There was a level of billing that came with his recruitment process that he doesn’t have the skills to live up to. That doesn’t mean Vesey can’t make it look easy against the bottom six of other teams.