After missing the playoffs in 2016-17, the Tampa Bay Lightning made it to the Conference Finals this season. Can the New York Rangers do the same and make a return to the playoffs next spring?
After a remarkable streak of playoff appearances, the Rangers joined the list of teams that missed out on the postseason this year. The big question Rangers fans have is whether this will be a short visit to NHL limbo or will this last for a few more years.
Can the Rangers emulate the Tampa Bay Lightning and after a one year absence, return to Stanley Cup contention? Or does perennial playoff elimination loom for a Rangers team that has committed to rebuild?
There are many reasons to be optimistic, the biggest being the solid core of talented players still on the roster. In Henrik Lundqvist they have an all-world goaltender with a talented young backup in Alexandar Georgiev.
Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Hayes lead a group of solid forwards and they will be supplemented by youngsters Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil. On defense, a healthy Kevin Shattenkirk will be buttressed by Brady Skjei, Marc Staal and Neal Pionk.
As with any team there are question marks.
Can Brendan Smith, John Gilmour and Tony D’Angelo raise their level of play? Can Jimmy Vesey, Jesper Fast, Vinni Littieri and Boo Nieves get better? Will Jeff Gorton flip Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Spooner and Vlad Namestikov for other assets? Which if any of the top 2018 draft picks make it to the NHL this season? And the biggest question is how David Quinn will adapt in his first season as an NHL coach.
It’s all about spending to the cap
The major reason to believe that the Rangers will return to contention is a simple one: the team has been one of the teams that consistently spends to the salary cap every season. According to CapFriendly.com the Rangers have $25 million in cap space and with the cap potentially rising to as much as $82 million the team could have over $30 million to spend.
There are a number of RFA’s that will need to be paid. They include Hayes, Skjei, Vesey, Spooner, Namestnikov. Gilmour and Rob O’Gara. With an expectation that at least some of them will be traded around the draft, the team will still have big bucks available.
It’s not the greatest free agent class once you get past John Tavares and John Carlson, but there are enough intriguing options out there to keep the Rangers in the playoff hunt while the rebuild continues.
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When the free agent sweepstakes opens on July 1, you can be assured that the Blueshirts will be players, having already been mentioned as the front-runners for Ilya Kovalchuk. Rick Nash and Michael Grabner have made it known that they would enjoy a return to Broadway.
What’s important to note is that at no time during the announced rebuild was there any mention of financial constraints. Still, there’s no reason to believe that the team will throw millions of dollars at aging stars. A key factor to watch will be the term if Kovalchuk is signed. Anything more than a three year deal would be folly.
While Rick Nash was a great teammate, his history of concussions are a concern and he would have to take a hometown discount for the Rangers to sign him. The departure of Alain Vigneault has made Grabner’s return much more iffy. Perhaps Middletown, New Jersey native James van Riemsdyk is an option if Kovalchuk goes elsewhere.
How Tampa did it
Tampa is certainly the model for a quick return to the playoffs, but the Lightning team that missed the playoffs in 2016-17 was not that different from the team that came one game from the Stanley Cup Finals this spring. The major factor in their improvement was the return of Steven Stamkos from injury that limited him to only 19 games. The development of Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde was also key as well as the additions of Mikhail Sergachev (traded for Jonathan Drouin), Chris Kunitz and Dan Girardi (free agents).
While the remake of the Rangers is far more dramatic, there are some parallels.
Hayes is coming off a career season and should continue to get better. If a more mature Kreider stays healthy ,he could have a monster season. David Quinn could be the man to coax the best out of a frustrated Pavel Buchnevich. Zuccarello, Spooner and Namestnikov are all solid veteran NHLers if they return. In Shattenkirk, Staal and Smith the team has a trio of defensemen with something to prove. Andersson, Chytil and Pionk should build on their experiences of this year and continue to grow.
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With an infusion of youth and some key free agent signings all could lead to a playoff return. Remember, it was just one year ago that the Rangers made it deep into the second round. But, for their inability to hold leads, they could have been playing Pittsburgh in the Conference Finals.
In the thirteen years since the lockout, nine teams have missed the playoffs for nine years or more. The likelihood of the Rangers joining that brotherhood is slim. One key factor is their willingness to spend compared to the perennial bottom-dwellers like Carolina, Buffalo, Arizona and the Islanders. While Auston Matthews is important, the fact that the Maple Leafs have spent to the cap the last few years has transformed them from an pretender to a contender.
One more important factor
The other factor in the Rangers favor is their goaltender. Even an aging Lundqvist gives the team a chance every game. That makes March 2 a key date for the team as he turns 37 on that day next spring and his Stanley Cup window closes just a bit more.
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Once the Cup has been awarded the focus will be on next season. With the NHL Entry Draft on June 22-23 and free agency on July 1, the next few weeks shape up to be a make or break time for the Rangers and Jeff Gorton.