The Chicago Blackhawks declined to extend a qualifying offer to former New York Rangers winger Anthony Duclair, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1.
It seems like ancient history at this point, but the trade that brought Keith Yandle to the New York Rangers in 2015 came with its share of controversy. Heading to Arizona was one of the Rangers’ most dynamic young forwards, Anthony Duclair.
Duclair’s time with the Rangers saw him score a memorable goal against Minnesota and provide the kind of speed and talent few Rangers prospects brought in previous years. Arizona demanded a steep price for Yandle.
Duclair’s Arizona career started off strong, with a 20-goal, 40-point sophomore season. He seemed primed to grow into a top scoring threat in the desert.
But things went sideways from there. Duclair followed up with seasons of 15 and 23 points. He was traded to Chicago, where he scored eight points this spring. The Blackhawks decided that wasn’t good enough, however, and opted to let him become a UFA.
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A reclamation homecoming
With the New York Rangers well underway in their rebuild, Duclair would be a smart signing for General Manager Jeff Gorton. At only 22 years of age, Duclair is still a developing player, and should be charged for a bounce-back season to prove he’s still an NHL player.
Duclair’s diminishing scoring numbers are actually a good thing for the Rangers. If they pursue the winger on a one-year, “show me what you’ve got” contract, his salary number should be very low. Michael Grabner’s two-year, $1.65 million AAV contract in 2016 would be a good example, though Duclair’s number will be lower.
But where Grabner had the previous goal totals to justify such a chance, Duclair has unrealized potential and remarkably good underlying numbers, considering his situation.
While playing for Arizona—one of the league’s worst teams over the past few years—Duclair held his own. According to Natural Stat Trick, most of Duclair’s points were primary. He wasn’t coasting by on secondary assists.
Additionally, he was on the ice for a balanced share of shot attempts at 5-on-5. In 2017-18, Arizona had 48.84% of shot attempts with Duclair on the ice, and the Blackhawks enjoyed 53.31% after he was traded.
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Silver linings
For a player with low point totals, it’s a good sign that he was pushing the play in the right direction. And where those low point totals come in, Duclair can find some solace. His shooting percentage has bounced up and down, but his shooting rate is the real problem.
If he can sustain his 12.5% career shooting percentage, Duclair needs only increase his volume. During his sophomore season, Duclair scored 20 goals on 105 shots. The following season saw him put only 76 shots on net.
In 2017-18, Duclair’s shots rose to 97. If he can keep increasing that volume while remaining effective, he may yet turn into a valuable scoring winger.
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As the Rangers head into a youth movement, Duclair would fit right in. Viewed as another prospect and given another chance, he can find the role the Rangers intended when they drafted him in 2013.