Trading Pavel Buchnevich now would be a mistake
This is the salary cap’s world and we all live in it as the New York Rangers are being reminded of right now.
After a blockbuster start to the offseason that yielded the No.2 overall pick in Kaapo Kakko, two stud defensemen in Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba and the prize of free agency in Artemi Panarin, the New York Rangers are now having to crunch the numbers and piece the jigsaw together.
As it stands, the Rangers are now $906,466 over the cap following the news on Friday that the franchise had locked down stud defenseman Jacob Trouba to a seven-year, $56,000,00 contract, which carries an average annual value of $8,000,000.
It doesn’t get easier, either, as the Blueshirts still need to thrash out new contracts for restricted free agents Pavel Buchnevich, Brendan Lemieux and Tony DeAngelo. Chuck into the mixing pot the fact that Chris Kreider’s long-term future with this franchise also needs resolving, then you have some idea of the work that lies ahead.
It is going to be extremely tight and the front office tandem of General Manager Jeff Gorton and President John Davidson are going to have to get creative to ensure that they are under the salary cap of $81.5 million once the puck drops to start 2019-20.
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It is a complicated situation which could involve buyouts and other such cap-related wizardry, but the purpose of this article isn’t to delve into the finer logistics of the mission facing the Rangers.
Instead, we strongly urge you to check out these excellent pieces by Steve Paulus and Jim Madden who have both done a good job of breaking down the cap implications facing NYR and what they could do to get themselves out of salary cap hell.
There is one potential serious implications of the salary cap issues facing the Rangers, though, and that’s what we want to focus on today.
If you Google search the Blueshirts at any point this week then the likelihood is that you will see the name Pavel Buchnevich and the dreaded ‘trade’ word in the same sentence.
Yes, you read that right. The latest trade bait snippet doing the rounds involves Buchnevich being placed on the trade block along with Vlad Namestnikov. Personally, Namestnikov has now become expendable due to his $4,000,000 cap hit and the fact that the Rangers now boast a glut of high-end offensive talent in the pipeline.
However, it seems a rather sizeable risk that you would consider trading Pavel Buchnevich now and I think this could turn out to be a mistake down the road. Let me map out the reasons why.
Keeping Buchnevich is key
Before I delve in, however, let me preface this by admitting that I know the forward has been a bit of an enigma during his time in The Big Apple. Like Chris Kreider, Buchnevich has shown in small sample sizes and flashes that he possesses the talent and the potential to become a high-end top-six forward in the NHL. However, on too many occasions the big Russian has gone from one night looking like a world-beater to the next night stinking the place out.
He has been at times a frustrating, almost polarising figure among not just Blueshirt fans but also his head coaches, first Alain Vigneault and then David Quinn who used his tough-love approach on Buchnevich more often than not during the first half of 2018-19.
Related Story. Pavel Buchnevich 18-19 Report Card. light
An inability to get to the dirty areas of the ice coupled with poor offensive production – six goals, five assists for 11 points – led to the 24-year-old languishing away on the bench or occupying a seat in the press box. He appeared in Quinn’s doghouse far too much and his face just didn’t seem to fit on a Rangers team that was getting younger and building for the future.
But then, just like that, something appeared to change overnight and just like magic Buchnevich morphed into a completely different player for the second half of the year. He finished 2018-19 with an almighty flourish, ending his third year in the NHL with 21 goals and 17 assists for 38 points. In addition, the left-shot also tallied 12 power play points and chalked off a milestone after registering his 100th career NHL point.
Buchnevich was red hot and he embarked on two wild streaks down the stretch; putting up seven points over a six-game span in mid-February before putting together a career-high six-game point streak (three goals, three assists) at the tail end of March.
And here’s an impressive nugget that perhaps best sums up Buchnevich’s radical overnight transformation. After his first 38 games in 18-19, the Russian had nine goals, an average of 1.4 shots per game and averaged 14:30 minutes of ice time per game. Compare that to the last 25 games of the year where he posted 12 goals, averaged 2.5 shots per game and logged an average of 16:09 minutes of ice time per night.
That level of production in the latter stages of 2018-19 is exactly what the Rangers were hoping for when they drafted Buchnevich 75th overall in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. It was a long time coming but the RW finally showed on a consistent basis that he’s capable of being a high-end productive sniper in the NHL.
He also bought into Quinn’s shoot first philosophy and took his chance by looking to shoot rather than pass on a much more consistent basis, which is key when you can boast a thunderous slapshot and a deadly release like Buchnevich can. To back this up, the 24-year-old averaged 2.5 shots per game in the last 25 matchups of last year compared to a measly 1.4 shots per game during the first half of the year.
Buchnevich just looked a more polished two-way forward in the latter part of 2018-19, he showed a willingness to roll his sleeves up and get to the dirty areas a lot more and he played like someone had lit a fire underneath him. He now has to carry that same level of performance and that same attitude forward in order to evolve into a consistent top-six performer for the Rangers.
His sudden desire to play out of his skin for the team and do what was asked of him in the defensive zone was reflected in the 16:09 minutes of ice time he averaged in the last 25 games of the season. And that is the biggest lesson Buchnevich needs to learn, if he simply buys in, works hard and plays to his ability, then he will get his just rewards and the potential is there to suggest that he could one day break into the upper echelons of the best scorers in the NHL.
Next. Rangers get it right with Trouba deal. dark
At just 24-years-old Buchnevich still has his best years ahead of him and he’s got plenty of time to hone his craft and wrinkle out the kinks in his game, including inconsistency which has hampered him and held him back for much of his career so far. He showed in the second half of last year a snippet of what he can become and with elite talent in Artemi Panarin and Kaapo Kakko now on the roster, that competition should help drive Buchnevich to become the best version of himself.
There is no doubt the New York Rangers will have to sacrifice someone in order to slip back under the salary cap for 2019-20, but both Ryan Strome and Vlad Namestnikov are more expendable and their ceiling isn’t as high as Buchnevich’s is.
The Blueshirts have a genuine high-end top-six forward in the Russian who still has two or three gears to climb, so trading him now wouldn’t be the smartest business decision and could, in my opinion, turn out to be a grave mistake further down the line.
If he hits the ground running out of training camp and performs from the very get-go the way he did at the tail end of 2018-19, then it isn’t unrealistic to suggest that Pavel Buchnevich could become a 50+ point scorer for the Rangers in 2019-20, and those don’t always grow on trees in the NHL.