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What can we REALLY expect this season?

By Steve Paulus

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 06: New York Rangers Right Wing Pavel Buchnevich (89) moves the puck after a face-off draw between New York Rangers Center Mika Zibanejad (93) and Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) during the overtime period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on April 6, 2019, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 06: New York Rangers Right Wing Pavel Buchnevich (89) moves the puck after a face-off draw between New York Rangers Center Mika Zibanejad (93) and Pittsburgh Penguins Center Evgeni Malkin (71) during the overtime period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Rangers on April 6, 2019, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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PHILADELPHIA, PA – MARCH 31: Filip Chytil #72, Tony DeAngelo #77, and Alexandar Georgiev #40 of the New York Rangers celebrate after defeating the Philadelphia Flyers 3-0 on March 31, 2019 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – MARCH 31: Filip Chytil #72, Tony DeAngelo #77, and Alexandar Georgiev #40 of the New York Rangers celebrate after defeating the Philadelphia Flyers 3-0 on March 31, 2019 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images) /

The Achilles heel

One thing we learned from Florida and Chicago is that a good offense cannot overcome a bad defense.  Although both teams finished in the top twelve in goals scored, Chicago had the second worst goals against in the league and Florida had the fourth worst.

In fact, only two teams among those with the 12th worst goals against made the playoffs.  They were the offensively loaded San Jose Sharks and Toronto Maple Leafs.   The Sharks had the second best offense and the Leafs had the fourth best offense, to offset their fairly lousy defensive numbers.

While the Rangers defense was pretty awful last season, it’s unclear how much better it will be this year.  Gone are  Shattenkirk,  Pionk and Fredrik Claesson.  They will be replaced by Trouba, Fox and Libor Hajek.  Is that an improvement?  Absolutely.  Will it mean much better defensive statistics?  Who knows.

The two other defensive factors are goaltending and team defense.  The hope has to be for slightly improved netminding from the Henrik Lundqvist/Alexandar Georgiev tandem. If they improve greatly over last year, the GAA will go down.

Team defense could be another story altogether as they infuse the lineup with young players who are prone to mistakes.  The greatest challenge facing Coach David Quinn and his assistants will be to institute a defensive system among the forwards. If they aren’t successful, it could be a long season.

Defensive stalwarts like Mika Zibanejad and Jesper Fast will be crucial this season.  It remains to be seen which line will match up against the top lines.  Developing a checking line that can shut down an offensive opponent is the Rangers’ best chance at improving their overall defense.

Could Lias Andersson be the cornerstone of a top shutdown defensive line along with Fast and Brendan Lemieux?  If he can, fans should stop focusing on his offense and revel in his defense.

Those one-goal games

When it came to the 2018-19 Rangers, a lot was made of the fact that the team lost 31 one-goal games.  An optimist will say, with the improved offense the teams wins ten of those games and finishes with 20 additional points giving them 98 on the season and a playoff berth.

Not so fast.  While the Blueshirts finished with a 24-31 record in one goal games (tossing out empty net goals), 14 of those losses came in overtime or a shootout, meaning that the team had gained a point in those games.   In fact, in one-goal games in regulation, the Rangers record was 15-17-23.

A 15-17 record in one-goal games is not awful and a five win swing would have given them a 20-12 record and ten additional points or 88, leaving them on the outside of the playoff picture.

The key statistic is 23, the number of overtime games the Rangers played. That was the most by any team in the Metropolitan Division and the second most in the Eastern Conference.  If the Blueshirts had been able to win eight of those games in regulation they would have gained as many as eight more points giving them 96 and on the playoff cusp.

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