What can we REALLY expect this season?

Overtime improvement needed

In those 23 overtime games, the Rangers  finished with a record of 9-14.  It’s no coincidence that before Thanksgiving when the Rangers made their unexpected run of playoff caliber hockey, their record in overtime and shootouts was 5-2.   From December on, their overtime record was 4-12.

Will they be better?  There’s no telling what the addition of a skilled goal scorer and playmaker like Artemi Panarin will have on the team’s ability to win more games in regulation.  Add Kaapo Kakko and the odds improve.  Ditto for the five-minute overtime.

As for the shootout, the Rangers finished 6-5 in the skills competition scoring 16 times on 40 attempts. David Quinn used only nine Blueshirts in the shootout.  Here are the shootout stats:

                                 Attempts     Goals     Pct.
Shattenkirk                  8               5          62.5%
DeAngelo                      4               2          50%
Zibanejad                    11              5          45.5%
Zuccarello                     5               2          40%
Vesey                             3               1          33%
Hayes                            4                1         25%
Buchnevich                  2                0          0%
Chytil                             2                0          0%
Spooner                       1                0          0%

While Shattenkirk had a career year at the shootout and will be hard to replace, Artemi Panarin should help in this category.  He  is 13 for 20 in career shootout attempts, a 65% success rate.  There’s no doubt a skilled scorer like Kakko will also get an opportunity in the shootout. Based on his success, DeAngelo should be a regular shootout contributor.

Reasonable expectations

With so many intangibles and question marks heading into the new season, it’s reasonable to put some achievable expectations on the 2019-20 New York Rangers.   Here goes.

The Rangers will score more goals. How many more is up to debate, but let’s say they finish with 260 goals, an improvement of 39 goals over last season.  Last season, that would have been good for 10th best in the league.

The Rangers will allow fewer goals.  This is a tough one.   The addition of Trouba, improvement from Skjei and a lighter workload for Marc Staal should all help the GAA.  Getting the team to buy into a defensive mindset is essential, just ask the New York Islanders.  Let’s be conservative and say that they will allow 15 fewer goals, allowing a total of 252 goals.  That would have put them in 20th overall.

If this happens, it will mean a positive goal differential of eight.  Last year, that would have meant 17th overall in the league.

That is improvement, but is it enough to be a playoff team?  Not yet, but they are getting closer.  It does mean that if these estimates are too conservative they could gel in time to make a postseason push.

If all of the cards fall in place it could be a thrilling run.  No matter how the team finishes, they will be a fun team to follow and watch.  There are still roster moves to be made and the battle for jobs in training camp will be fierce.  It’s a good time to be a Rangers fan.