What can we REALLY expect this season?

With the high profile additions to the New York Rangers it’s worth looking at some of the numbers from last season and what to expect this campaign.

Everyone is excited about the arrival of all of the new New York Rangers.  The team looks to have their best offense in years and with an improved defense, things are looking up.  Let’s take a look at where the team will be starting from.

Last season the team scored 221 goals, an average of 2.70 goals per game, good for 23rd best in the NHL.  They allowed 267 goals, an average of 3.26 per game.  That was ninth worst in the league and big reason that they finished with the sixth worst record in the NHL.  Their goal differential was minus 45.  Only five teams were worse.

The new offense

So, how much better will the offense be?  First, let’s subtract the players from last year who are no longer with the Rangers.  The biggest goal and point producers who have departed are Kevin Hayes, Mats Zuccarello, Jimmy Vesey,Neal Pionk and Kevin Shattenkirk.   As a group they accounted for 50 goals and 118 assists.  Add in the other departees (Adam McQuaid, Fredrik Claesson, Connor Brickley and Ryan Spooner) and the grand total is 56 goals, 129 assists and 185 points that need to be replaced (at the very minimum).

The Rangers have added two proven NHLers, Panarin and Trouba and will introduce a boatload of prospects to fill the void.   Let’s look at the career stats of the two veterans.

If you assume that Trouba and Panarin will score at their career average rate, Panarin will end up with 29 goals, 52 assists and 81 points in 82 games.  Trouba will end up with eight goals, 28 assists and 36 points in 82 games.  Their combined total would be 37 goals, 80 assists and 127 points.

That means that if they play the way that they have their entire careers, the Rangers will be 19 goals, 49 assists and 58 points short of where they finished last season.  The good news is that rookies Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox and Vitali Kravtsov should make up that shortfall and the team should see improvement from their sophomores.

A more optimistic view is based on last season’s numbers.  Both Panarin and Trouba had career years and if they replicate those results, they will end up with 36 goals, 101 assists and 137 points.  That’s only 20 goals, 28 assists and 48 points shy of the production lost.

It’s quite possible that Kakko alone could make up that difference and if that happens, additional offense from Kravtsov and Fox will be gravy. Factor in improved production from sophomores Filip Chytil, Lias Andersson, Brett Howden and Brendan Lemieux and the picture gets even better.

So, it’s easy to conclude that the 2019-20 New York Rangers will be vastly improved offensively.  How much better do they need to be?

Conservative projection

Let’s assume that Kakko will make up for the lost production.  Let’s also conservatively assume that the other rookies and the sophomores will account for an additional 35 goals.  That would give the team an improved total of 256 goals.  Last season, 256 goals would have put the Rangers at 12th overall in the NHL, tied with Columbus.   The only teams that finished with 256 goals or more last season and missed the playoffs were Florida and Chicago.

So the great news is if the team can stay away from injuries and they get expected production from all of the kids and sustained production from their veterans, they will end up with an offense and goal total that is “playoff worthy.”

But there is one key factor facing the team and it is the team’s biggest challenge.

The Achilles heel

One thing we learned from Florida and Chicago is that a good offense cannot overcome a bad defense.  Although both teams finished in the top twelve in goals scored, Chicago had the second worst goals against in the league and Florida had the fourth worst.

In fact, only two teams among those with the 12th worst goals against made the playoffs.  They were the offensively loaded San Jose Sharks and Toronto Maple Leafs.   The Sharks had the second best offense and the Leafs had the fourth best offense, to offset their fairly lousy defensive numbers.

While the Rangers defense was pretty awful last season, it’s unclear how much better it will be this year.  Gone are  Shattenkirk,  Pionk and Fredrik Claesson.  They will be replaced by Trouba, Fox and Libor Hajek.  Is that an improvement?  Absolutely.  Will it mean much better defensive statistics?  Who knows.

The two other defensive factors are goaltending and team defense.  The hope has to be for slightly improved netminding from the Henrik Lundqvist/Alexandar Georgiev tandem. If they improve greatly over last year, the GAA will go down.

Team defense could be another story altogether as they infuse the lineup with young players who are prone to mistakes.  The greatest challenge facing Coach David Quinn and his assistants will be to institute a defensive system among the forwards. If they aren’t successful, it could be a long season.

Defensive stalwarts like Mika Zibanejad and Jesper Fast will be crucial this season.  It remains to be seen which line will match up against the top lines.  Developing a checking line that can shut down an offensive opponent is the Rangers’ best chance at improving their overall defense.

Could Lias Andersson be the cornerstone of a top shutdown defensive line along with Fast and Brendan Lemieux?  If he can, fans should stop focusing on his offense and revel in his defense.

Those one-goal games

When it came to the 2018-19 Rangers, a lot was made of the fact that the team lost 31 one-goal games.  An optimist will say, with the improved offense the teams wins ten of those games and finishes with 20 additional points giving them 98 on the season and a playoff berth.

Not so fast.  While the Blueshirts finished with a 24-31 record in one goal games (tossing out empty net goals), 14 of those losses came in overtime or a shootout, meaning that the team had gained a point in those games.   In fact, in one-goal games in regulation, the Rangers record was 15-17-23.

A 15-17 record in one-goal games is not awful and a five win swing would have given them a 20-12 record and ten additional points or 88, leaving them on the outside of the playoff picture.

The key statistic is 23, the number of overtime games the Rangers played. That was the most by any team in the Metropolitan Division and the second most in the Eastern Conference.  If the Blueshirts had been able to win eight of those games in regulation they would have gained as many as eight more points giving them 96 and on the playoff cusp.