2019-20 Report Card: Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich has shown flashes of brilliance in four years with the New York Rangers. Will 2021 be his breakout season?

We continue our series of New York Rangers report cards.  As we work out way through the forwards we turn to Pavel Buchnevich. We’ll look back at last season and provide some expectations for the coming season.

Pavel Buchnevich: Grade C+

Have the New York Rangers seen the best of Pavel Buchnevich?

Through four seasons with the Blueshirts, the 6’3″ 196 pound right-winger has shown flashes of brilliance in establishing NHL season averages of 15 goals, 22 assists, and 37 points. His numbers aren’t bad, but they are rather pedestrian for a player picked 75th overall in the 2013 Entry Draft and with three years of experience in the Kontinental Hockey League.

Such credentials raised expectations before he skated a single NHL shift. Thus far he hasn’t been good for 25 goals and 60 points per season as many projected. Now, granted, four years isn’t a career, and a player can certainly blossom later on, as Alexei Kovalev did after getting traded by the Rangers to the Pittsburgh Penguins.  On a positive note, Buchnevich’s numbers after four NHL seasons are similar to Kovalev’s.

“Buch” joined the Rangers at age 21 and has 59 goals and 88 assists for 147 points in 247 games through his first four campaigns  . “Kovy” was 19 when he joined the Blueshirts and notched 80 markers and 100 helpers for 180 points in 270 games over (including the lockout-shortened 1994-95 season of 48 games).

Buchnevich’s scoring production has been pretty consistent. After a promising rookie campaign in 2016-17, when he notched eight goals and 12 assists for 20 points in 41 games, his scoring totals over the ensuing three seasons plateaued. His points: 43, 38, and 46; his goals: 14, 21, and 16.

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Kovalev didn’t eclipse the 30 goal-mark until his ninth NHL season when he was 27 years old and potted 44 for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2000-01. After that, the gifted winger enjoyed three more campaigns with 30 or more goals, his last in 2007-08 when he scored 35 for the Montreal Canadiens.

The similarities between Buchnevich and Kovalev extend beyond their home country, position, and offensive output over their first four NHL seasons.

Both also could dazzle and frustrate coaches and fans in the same shift. One moment, they’re undressing opponents. The next, they’re holding onto the puck too long and passing up glorious scoring chances to make an extra “pretty” pass.

Since arriving on Broadway, there have been times Buchnevich has been assertive in all zones, hard on the forecheck, strong on the puck, and feisty along the walls.  There have also been too many times he’s been invisible or benched for not winning enough puck battles or blowing coverages.

Buchnevich has one more shot to prove to the Rangers he’s worth keeping.

Next season is the last on his current deal after which he can become an arbitration-eligible Restricted Free Agent (RFA). Even in a season shortened by COVID-19, “Buch” needs to be more productive with the puck and better without it to justify bringing him back.

His season

Buchnevich didn’t break out last season but it wasn’t because he was buried on the third or fourth lines.

At 5-on-5, he played with Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad for 283.5 minutes, Kreider and Filip Chytil for 112 minutes, Zibanejad and Artemei Panarin for 94 minutes, and Panarin and Strome for 88 minutes.   In other words, he was given every chance to put up big numbers.

The season ended on a high note for the Russian as he was one of the hottest players on the team.  In his last seven games he scored two goals and added even assists.  Over his last 18 games, he scored seven goals and had 13 assists for 19 points.  There’s no doubt that there was chemistry with Mika Zibanejad. Over that final seven game stretch, five of his seven assists were on goals scored by the Swede.

Was Zibanejad the beneficiary of Buchnevich’s playmaking or did Buchnevich benefit from Zibanejad’s goal scoring ability?  It’s the latter if you look at his first fifty games of the season when Buchnevich scored nine goals and totaled 26 points.   Zibanejad did not have a similar drop in production, scoring 20 goals and 46 points in that same period.

He did end the season on a high note, scoring the last goal for the Rangers in the pandemic shortened season.

The numbers

Games:  68
Goals: 16 (5th on the team)
Assists: 30 (6th on the team)
Points: 46 (5th on the team)
PIMs: 24
PPG: 4 (tied-4th on the team)
Plus/Minus:  +2
Hits:  80
ATOI: 16:56 (10th among the team’s skaters)
Corsi-for: 51.6 (2nd on the team)

Postseason:  Buchnevich failed to record a point in any of the three games of the Qualifying Round loss to Carolina, five shots on goal, and 14 hits. His plus/minus rating was-1 and he had six penalty minutes.

Why the grade?

There are only so many ways to say his numbers didn’t raise eyebrows despite playing with the team’s top forwards.

Expectations

Besides this being the final season of this contract, Buchnevich has another reason to break out: He’s not the only free agent decision the Rangers will have to make.

The Rangers have five other players eligible to become RFAs after next season: defenseman Ryan Lindgren, goalie Igor Shesterkin, and forwards Filip Chytil, Julien Gauthier, and Brett Howden.

Lindgren and Chytil would have to be seriously injured or play extremely poorly to be allowed to leave. Chytil is four years younger than Buchnevich, while Lindgren brings the physicality the team’s already gone on record as stating needs to be a priority on the blueline. Shesterkin isn’t going anywhere.

Another consideration for the Rangers is the players who can become free agents following the 2021-22 season (which isn’t that far off). That group includes potential Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, as well as RFAs Kaapo Kakko, Tony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox. Maybe Strome and DeAngelo are traded by then?

When you project Buchnevich’s numbers over a full 82 games he would have scoredd 19 goals and totaled 55 points.  Is  $3.25 million (minimum) too steep price for that kind of production? Especially in these times, when the pandemic has many teams bleeding money.

That means that he has to improve this season and justify that slot in the top six. If he doesn’t, the Rangers could very well trade or leave him unprotected in next summer’s Expansion Draft for the Seattle Kraken.