2019-20 Rangers report card: Kaapo Kakko

Rookie Kaapo Kakko started strong last season for the New York Rangers. Then the NHL caught up.

We continue our series of New York Rangers report cards.  As we work our way through the forwards we turn to Kaapo Kakko. We’ll look back at last season and provide some expectations for the coming season.

Kaapo Kakko: Grade C-

The NHL isn’t the Finnish Elite League. In case Kaapo Kakko might’ve thought otherwise, his rookie campaign in the world’s top professional hockey league served as a reminder.

After a strong start for the New York Rangers last season, the 18-year-old Finland native was in the Calder conversation in many hockey circles. But by late November, the rigors (and reality) of the NHL caught up, and the second overall pick of the 2019 Entry Draft struggled for much of the season’s second half.

The NHL’s smaller ice surfaces, longer schedule, and faster and stronger players caught up with the 6-foot-1, 181-pound winger, who had goal-scoring droughts of 13, 14, and 19 games, and didn’t receive a single vote for the Calder (Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar won with 1,538 votes; Rangers blueliner Adam Fox finished fourth with 430).

That doesn’t mean Kakko won’t become the star for the Rangers.

Last season he was just a teenager in a new country, playing in its largest market and for one of the NHL’s most prestigious organizations. And he did that despite speaking little English and battling type one diabetes. Plus, he returned to training camp last July after the NHL paused on March 12 and, according to head coach David Quinn, looked “recharged” and “more comfortable” and “had more jump in his step.”

His season

Kakko notched 10 goals and 13 assists for 23 points, along with 14 penalty minutes and a Corsi-for percentage of 44.1, and averaged 14:17 of ice per match over 66 games. However, much of his production came early.

He scored five times in his first 16 games, including twice in a win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on November 12 at Madison Square Garden.

But after notching the winner in overtime against the Pens, he didn’t score again until January 2 at Calgary, a span of 19 matches. He then went straight 13 games without a goal, scored the winner versus the Los Angeles Kings on February 9, and was scoreless for 14 consecutive contests before potting two against the Dallas Stars on March 10.

In three games of the Qualifying Round, he was held pointless and averaged 15:53 minutes per match.

The numbers

Games:  66
Goals: 10
Assists: 13
Points: 23
PIMs: 14
PPG: 2
Plus/Minus: -26
Hits: 20
ATOI: 14:17
Corsi-for: 44.1

Postseason:  Kakko played in all three matches of the Qualifying Round sweep by the Carolina Hurricanes. He didn’t record a point, averaged 15:53 of ice per night, blocked three shots, and took six shots on goal.

Why the grade?

Kakko played six more regular-season games for the Rangers than he would have had he remained in the Finnish Elite League, where the seasons are 60 games. His projected totals had the NHL played its full 82-match schedule: 12 goals and 15 assists for 27 points.

Some will attribute his numbers to playing the majority of his even-strength minutes with Filip Chytil (20 years old) and Brett Howden (21). The trio logged 135 minutes together but wasn’t too effective. They had a Corsi-for of 46.98 % and were on the ice for two goals for and 10 against.

Kakko also spent 103 minutes alongside Howden and Brendan Lemieux, a feisty and physical forward for sure, but not one known for his scoring touch. The trio had a Corsi-for of 40.35%, scored twice, and allowed four goals.

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However, Kakko also received 147 minutes of power-play time, more than every other Ranger forward not named Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, or Pavel Buchnevich. Kakko averaged 2:13 per game with the man advantage, just four seconds less than Buchnevich and more than Fox or Jacob Trouba.

In other words, he saw plenty of ice when the Blueshirts had the man advantage. Yet, he had just two power-play goals to show for it, though he did have eight primary assists (second on the team behind Ryan Strome’s 9).

At even strength, Kakko also spent time with Panarin and Strome (59 minutes), Panarin and Zibanejad (42 minutes), and Kreider and Zibanejad (30 minutes). Granted that’s not a ton of time with the team’s best at even strength, but he was demoted from the team’s top-six forwards when his production fell off sharply last fall.

Expectations

Kakko has two more seasons remaining on his entry-level deal that’ll pay him $925,000 per with up to $2.65 million in potential bonuses.

By the end of his deal, the Rangers will know if they have a keeper.

The NHL is hoping to play a 56-game schedule starting in January. If Kakko earns a spot among the top-six forwards, 15 goals and 35 points are probably reasonable to expect. He’ll then have the 2021-22 season to build upon, a chance to show the Rangers he’s worth keeping.

Kakko is among several Rangers eligible for free agency following the 2021-22 season. That group includes potential Unrestricted Free Agents (UFA) Mika Zibanejad and Ryan Strome, as well as RFAs Tony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox.