Expectations for the 2020-21 New York Rangers – Part 3: Forwards

Mika and the Breadman are the New York Rangers version of Batman and Robin

Over the years, the New York Rangers have had plenty of groupings or pairings that have performed well and become fan favorites. In the 60’s and 70’s there was the GAG line of Rod Gilbert, Vic Hatfield and Jean Ratelle . In the 1990’s Mark Messier and Adam Graves were never too far apart. The Cap Era started with Jaromir Jagr with Michael Nylander, saw Brad Richards with Marian Gaborik and Derek Stepan with Rick Nash.

Today, the New York Rangers have Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin as their perfect pair. The difference though, is that unlike all the other great groupings of players, Zibanejad and Panarin generally only find themselves on the ice together for the power play. The greatness that they have elevated themselves too is not because of a chemistry between them, it is in fact in spite of it. The fact that they excel without each other has enabled the Rangers to be a two headed beast and be a match up issue for most opponents.

#10 – Artemi Panarin

Artemi Panarin joined the New York Rangers with much fanfare as the most prized free agent of the summer in 2019. To say he did not disappoint would be an understatement as the left wing had his most prolific season to date. In just 69 games played, Panarin recorded career high’s in goals (32), assists (63), points (95) and plus/minus (+36).  He was nominated for the Hart Trophy as the league most valuable player.

With the nomination, Panarin joins a very short list of New York Rangers. He is only the fourth Blueshirt in the last fifty years to have received a nomination. Messier did so twice, winning in 1992 and finishing second in 1996, Jaromir Jagr came in second place in 2006 and Henrik Lundqvist finished in third place in 2012. This however is where expectations need a healthy dose of reality. Only the very few, the very special players reach these level again and again.

After their award worthy seasons with the Rangers neither Messier, nor Jagr would reach the 100 point plateau again. Both continued to produce at elite levels, but just not quite as prolific. Similarly, Lundqvist would follow up his nominated season with elite level play for for another four seasons, but never reach the heights he had in 2011-12. To expect Panarin to remain at this level is a fallacy.

What we can expect from the Breadman is the continued point per game excellence he has shown throughout his career. Having never recorded fewer then 74 points in a season and continually scoring roughly 30 goals, Panarin is an elite level talent. Expectations should rest at the point per game mark, with anything additional being gravy.

#93 – Mika Zibanejad 

That Mika Zibanejad posted career numbers in 2019-20 should not come as a surprise to anyone. His career highs of 41 goals and 75 points scored are not some outlandish jump from his previous season. Nor are they vastly different from what a healthy Zibanejad has shown as a Ranger.  However, what is surprising is that Zibanejad accomplished these milestones in just 57 games played.

Before injuries, in each of his first two seasons in New York, Zibanejad was on pace for an increasing career growth arc. In 2016-17 and 2017-18 he was on pace for 65 and 75 points respectively. When finally healthy for his third season in 2018-19, he recorded 74 points. 2019-20 though, is a different animal all together and it is not something that we should automatically expect a repeat performance of.

Why? He started the season with back to back four point games, added another in February and had a five goal performance against the Washington Capitals in March. That’s an astounding 17 points in just four games. Remove these games as outliers, and he still paced a 90 point season over a full 82 games. Elite level production? Yes, but a step or two below what was witnessed this past season.

Additionally, Zibanejad’s shooting percentage, a career high, 19.7% is simply unsustainable. As a reference, Alexander Ovechkin, the cap era’s greatest goal scorer and nine time Rocket Richard trophy winner has never had a shooting percentage exceeding 15.4%. Against the shooting percentage of his previous three seasons in New York (12.5%), Zibanejad would have only scored 26 goals on the 208 shots he took.

Trimming his goal totals by 15 would reduce his overall production level to more closely resemble his 2018-19 season. As noted with Panarin, expecting Zibanejad to remain at this level is fallacy. The more realistic expectation is that Zibanejad has grown into a true number one center and should produce at a still elite, near a point per game pace.