Expectations for the 2020-21 New York Rangers – Part 3: Forwards

The New York Rangers top six is really only a top five

After the dynamic duo, the next three New York Rangers round out a top six forward group that is really a top five. Their mix of youth, power and perseverance scored a combined 150 points, including 58 goals. These totals could have potentially been higher, but without having a reliable scoring right wing for the second line, Coach Quinn used Jesper Fast to round out the Rangers top six forwards. While his play benefited the second line defensively, his production was well below expectations for a top six role.

Whether it be through realizing potential, fierce determination or newly found chemistry, these players helped to make the nightly match-ups a nightmare for opposing coaches.

#89 – Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich is a player who is finally coming into his own. In just 68 games he recorded career high’s in assists (30) and points (46) while on pace to reach the 20 goal mark for a second time had the season not been suspended. His growth as a player mirrors two other players who played their youth in Rangers blue, Chris Kreider and Kevin Hayes.

Through their first 247 games in the NHL, Buchnevich has produced points and assists at a higher rate than either Kreider or Hayes. He scored only two fewer goals than Kreider over that span while netting eight more than Hayes. Why is this comparison important? Because both Kreider and Hayes made jumps in the development of the games shortly after the 250 game mark.

Hayes would go on to score 25 goals in the season that saw him reach 250 games played. Kreider would reach his career high of 28 goals, 25 assists and 53 points in that same respective season. Should Buchnevich experience a similar jump in his development it would equate to a 65 point season over a full 82 games.

Projections are an inexact science and basing expectations directly upon them is a recipe for frustration. However, Buchnevich is still young and has shown nothing but growth year after year. It should therefore be expected that he produces at the same level, at a minimum, during the 2020-21 season.

#20 – Chris Kreider

With 24 goals, 21 assists and 45 points in just 63 games, Kreider was on pace to set career highs in each category. Then fate struck and he was sidelined with broken foot suffered when he blocked a shot. He would miss the final six games before the season was suspended. The issue though, is that Kreider always seems to be on the cusp of “breaking out”, but something always seems to get in the way.

In 2017-18 he needed rib resection surgery due to a blood clot found in his arm. in 2018-19 he played through a hamstring injury, limiting his production to just two goals and three assists over the final 17 games. Though, over the last four seasons, since first reaching the 50 point plateau, his production levels have been remarkably consistent, even if his play appears to be anything but.

It may be time though to admit that Kreider has already reached his “next level” and that he is who he is as a player. Kreider brings speed and power to the game that few in the NHL can match. He has also proven to be a leader on the team, increasing his value to the organization above that of simply goals and points. Headed into the 2020-21 season, expectations should be a heavy net front presence with production levels hovering around what we have seen the last few seasons.

#16 – Ryan Strome

Ryan Strome was mired in a stretch of three straight seasons of no more than 34 points when he was traded from the Edmonton Oilers to the New York Rangers during the 2018-19 season. The change of scenery was good for the center as he scored 18 goals with New York in just 63 games, establishing a new career high for goals scored with 19 (he had scored one goal with the Oilers prior to the trade).

Last season he found great chemistry with linemate Artemi Panarin and was off to the races. He would record career highs in assists (41) and points (59) in the shortened season while playing nearly four more minutes per game than at any time prior. The question surrounding Strome is this: Was his season dependent upon his chemistry with his usual left wing or has he finally lived up to his draft status (fifth overall in 2011).

Strome’s goal scoring with the Rangers has been consistent, but with changing methods. In 2018-19 his shooting percentage was insanely high at 22.5% during his 63 games with the Blueshirts. That total would rank 15th best of the cap era, it was simply not a sustainable statistic. In 2019-20, his shooting percentage dropped to 11.7%, but by nearly doubling his shot totals, he again recorded 18 goals.

His assists totals though tell a different story. Nine of his even strength and one of his power play assists were associated with Artemi Panarin goals. As the team continues to infuse itself with skilled youth, Strome may find himself moved to the second power play unit, reducing his production with the man advantage. Then if Panarin does not have as prolific a season, his even strength numbers may also take a hit.

Realistic expectations should fall somewhere in the middle. Anything more than high teens in goals and near 30 assists should be taken as a blessing.