Why trading Lafrenière could happen

The New York Rangers were the recipients of the largesse of Lady Luck when they won the NHL Draft Lottery in 2020.   They were gifted the top pick in the draft, a can’t miss prospect by the name of Alexis Lafrenière.   We know all about his amazing career in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, the CHL Player of the Year awards and the World Junior Championships MVP honor.  He was the consensus number one pick and the superstar top pick the Rangers had never had.

There was only one problem.  It was the position that he plays.   Alexis Lafrenière is a left winger and of all of the positions on the team, it was the worst possible position for him to play.  With Artemi Panarin signed through 2026 and Chris Kreider signed through 2027 the left wing position on the top two lines were already set for the next half decade.

If Lafrenière plays any other position the Rangers would easily be able to slide him into a key position on the team whether it be at right wing, center or on defense. Instead, he has been a third or fourth winger or has been moved to the off wing, an experiment that has not worked.

He has been a disappointment with 20 goals and 32 points in 97 games, not awful numbers for a teenager, but  below the expectations of  first overall pick. It’s not a disaster and hockey observers still believe that he will develop in to a solid top six player if not a star in the NHL.  He has good hands, gets his shots on net and can be a physical presence.

He can rise to the occasion as he did in his first game in his hometown of Montreal in October, when he scored the game winning third period goal in front of his family and friends.

He did it again when he scored in the shootout against Los Angeles, challenged by the goal scored by Quinton Byfield, the second overall pick in the same draft.

The Rangers have not, and would be foolish to give up on him.  He’s still learning and growing and has shown enough to keep the “bust” label away.   But there is one problem looming.

The problem

Brennan Othmann turned 19 on January 5 so he is still young and would normally be a couple years away from making his NHL debut.  Except for the fact that he has already played on year in a pro league against players much older and he is dominating the OHL in his second full season in that league.

It’s very likely that the Rangers see Brennan Othmann playing in Hartford next season with a shot at making the big league roster.  He has already been signed to his Entry Level Contract (ELC) and could even get a brief look in Hartford at the end of this OHL season.

If Othmann is as good as advertised and is ready to make the leap to professional hockey that give the Rangers four, count ’em, four quality left wingers.  Two of them have ironclad, long term contracts while the third is a player who should be playing in the top six. The fourth is showing the potential that he should be a top six player.

And that is where trading Alexis Lafrenière becomes a possibility.

Trading the first overall pick

Teams just don’t trade the first overall pick, especially within the first four years of play in the NHL.  It’s only happened twice since the Ranger won their last Stanley Cup and once it was the top two picks traded for each other when Ottawa send Bryan Berard (#1) to the Islanders for Wade Redden (#2) in 1996 along with assorted other players.

The only time a first overall pick was traded within his first four years in the NHL was Erik Johnson of the St. Louis Blues who was traded in his third season to the Colorado Avalanche in a blockbuster deal that involved no fewer than four former first round picks.

So, if the Rangers are even considering trading Lafrenière it would be radical departure from the norm and would open them to second guessing for years to come.

In one way a trade makes a lot of sense.  It would open a path for Othmann to be the third line left winger, a role that he could easily assume, leaving Kreider and Panarin to occupy the top two slots for the next five years.  When Panarin’s contract expires at the end of 2026, Othmann will be all of 23 years old and ready to assume a top six role.

Meanwhile, in 2026 Lafrenière would be 25 years old and have six years in the NHL waiting for a  top six left wing slot open up for him.

A trade would take the heat off Lafrenière who has no immediate future in the top six unless they shift Kreider to the right wing, something that coach Gerard Gallant has been reluctant to experiment with.  It’s hard to argue with Gallant’s desire to stick with what got him to this point, the third best record in the NHL and Kreider atop the NHL goal scoring list.

What to do?

So, what should the Rangers do?  First, there is no need to rush.  Lafrenière has one more season left on this ELC so the Rangers are over a year away from having to make a decision on a contract.  They can explore options with every team in the NHL through the end of this season and over the summer and if Lafrenière can show more growth, it will only enhance his value.

There is one team that would make perfect sense as a trading partner.  Of course, that would be the Montreal Canadiens.   The idea of a potential French-Canadian star coming to Montreal has to have the fan base there salivating.  The Habs haven’t had a native Quebecois star since Patrick Roy and Guy Lafleur and Cedric Paquette is the sole Quebec native on the team.

It would be fitting to reunite Jeff Gorton with the player he picked first in the draft. The question is how much Montreal would be willing to give up to get him.  You can be sure that the Rangers would have an interest in defenseman Alexander Romanov or right wingers Josh Anderson and Cole Caufield or centers Nick Suzuki and Christian Dvorak.

The ultimate irony is though the Rangers lucked out in the lottery two year in a row, if their picks had been reversed they would be in a much better position.  It they had the first pick in 2019 they could have taken center Jack Hughes and then center Quinton Byfield in 2020.  They would be set at the most important position (outside of goal) for the next decade.  Kaapo Kakko still has the potential to be a star, but Lafrenière is stuck in a bad situation.

The bottom line is the Rangers are deep in two positions, left wing and defense.  They are in dire need of help at center and on right wing.  Is there a blockbuster deal to be made?  It’s still doubtful, but Brennan Othmann’s development as a blue ribbon prospect has made it more of a possibility.