Cale Makar's record breaking contract reinforces Adam Fox is the NHL's biggest bargain

Cale Makar turns 28 on October 30, and this will be the final year in which the Colorado Avalanche's franchise defenseman makes $9 million a season, as his newly signed $163.2 million dollar deal ($20.4 million) goes into effect for his age 29 season.

That contract will take Makar until age 36 with him turning 37 during the first month of a new season, and by that point there's no telling how good he will be but it won't matter given how much the salary cap is expected to grow by then. Naturally, all eyes will turn to Quinn Hughes who can become a UFA in July of 2027 if he doesn't extend with Minnesota, but the New York Rangers are awfully lucky Adam Fox isn't a free agent until 2029.

Fox's contract looks even better compared to Makar's

Fox signed a seven-year, $66.5 million extension in November of 2021, and his deal took up 11.52 percent of the salary cap at the time. A $9.5 million cap hit was looked at as a potential risk, but given the deals we've seen handed out in recent years, it has proven to be a tremendous bargain. Makar's $9 million cap hit was on a six year deal signed in July of 2021, and it was done strategically so that he'd be in position to sign the type of deal he just did.

Makar is a very talented and accomplished player who has done some amazing things for the Avalanche, but I can't help but feel they have signed him to a deal that is more about previous performance than what he will do going forward. That Fox will be playing on his deal for two more years at the same time Makar is making $20.4 million will be a tremendous bargain for the Rangers.

That take on Makar may sound preposterous or salty, but I assure you it isn't. The Avalanche were always going to pay him, because you pay your best players to keep them. But to pay him that much more than Nathan MacKinnon feels silly. Obviously that deal was signed a few years ago, but we've seen other teams like Tampa set a hierarchy of contracts and get everyone to buy in.

I get that at a time in which players like Macklin Celebrini and Leo Carlsson are getting near max deals that it's hard to keep Makar down, but I think a deal that was at or near MacKinnon's percentage would have been fair. If you want to give him a bump since he's taking eight years, fine, but that deal would be around $18 million instead.

Rant aside, the Makar contracts just gives me another chance to point out how valuable Fox and his contract is, how underappreciated he is, and how lucky the Rangers are to have him.

What the numbers say

Evolving-Hockey has a stat named GAR which stands for Goals Above Replacement. Essentially it's an all-in-one number to evaluate how a player performs in different areas of the game. It isn't perfect, but I think it's good for comparing players. I've previously looked at Fox in comparison to Makar and Hughes, so I won't rehash all of it.

Makar is coming off a season in which he was worth 16.8 GAR, an improvement over the 14.9 GAR he was worth in 2024-25 which is an improvement over the 14.7 he was worth the year prior. Makar's best overall season came in 2021-22, and he finished with a 22.9 GAR in 77 games. I think it is notable to point out how high a level he hit, and the last few years he's been a few rungs under that.

Fox was worth 17.5 GAR this most recent season, and what's notable about that is he graded out so well in what is essential a counting stat while appearing in just 55 games. The year before that he was at 15.5 GAR, and the year before that he was at 18.5 GAR. When you add everything up, Fox has been worth 107.1 GAR, and Makar has been worth 118 GAR. Makar grades out better overall, but as I have pointed out before, there's also xGAR which looks at expected numbers.

Makar's career best xGAR season came in 2021-22 with a 35.8, and since then he's posted 19.3, 10.3, 26.9, and 14.2. If you were to look at those numbers alongside his actual GAR, you can see a situation in which he's outpacing his expected performance, which suggest he's been quite lucky.

Then you have Fox who had a 21.1 xGAR in 2021-22, a 25.6 xGAR the year after that, a 33.1 xGAR in 2023-24, a 22 xGAR in 2024-25, and a 20 xGAR in just 55 games this season. When you sum everything up, Fox's xGAR in his career to date has been 148.3 while Makar's has been 134.4. Fox has appeared in just 16 more games than Makar to this point.

Taking the net differentials, Fox has 41.2 fewer GAR than xGAR, and Makar has 16.4 fewer GAR than xGAR. The TL/DR of this is that while Makar has certainly played a flashier game on the surface than Fox, his output is essentially what you would expect based on his underlying numbers. Fox has clearly deserved a better fate of results. although the Rangers can take solace that his year over year variance has been less volatile than Makar.

What to expect from Makar going forward

One of the biggest risks about this deal is that so much of Makar's game is based on his speed and agility, and it remains to be seen how his body and game will age.

Fox has never been a fast skater, his biggest asset is his brain, and theoretically his game should age a lot more gracefully because he's not playing a style that is dependent on a particular skill set.

The best way to explain this using a recent player is Alex Ovechkin. Ovechkin has been one of the game's most electric players, but it has been evident that he is no longer as quick or dynamic as he was in his prime, and for that reason his game has aged in a manner that you'd expect.

I am not saying that Makar is going to be a bust, but over the last three years we've seen Makar average 1.17 points per game, 1.15 points per game, and 1.05 points per game. What's good for Colorado is that he appeared in 77, 80, and 75 games over that span. He was limited to 57 games during his rookie season, he played in 44 of 56 during the COVID shortened year, 77 games in 2021-22, and 60 in 2022-23.

Last year if the first time that Fox had missed a signifcant amount of games, as his games per year include 70, 55 of 56, 78, 82, 72, 74, and 55 of 82 this past season. Starting with 2021-22, Fox had 74 points, 72 points, 73 points, 61 points, and 53 points in 55 games. While he's not been at the upper echelon offensive numbers Makar has hit, his defensive metrics and underlying numbers more than make up for that.

Rangers need to be prepared to pay Fox

Quinn Hughes will be the next big name defender to sign a mega deal, but after that the attention shifts to Fox. Alot of what comes next depends on how he plays, the health he's in, and the overall state of the Rangers, but he's more than outperformed his current contract.

Analytically he remains one of the top defenders in the game, and there's absolutely no reason why he's not worth as much or more than Makar just got, especially since the cap will be much higher this time in 2029.

The biggest difference is he'll be 31 at that point, but given what I already said about his playstyle and how he's able to impact the game, that shouldn't be an impediment to getting a deal done, especially since a max deal at that point will be only seven years which would take him to 38 or one more year than Makar's current contract.

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