3 reasons Igor Shesterkin is not out of the race for the Vezina Trophy
Connor Hellebuyck may have a huge lead for the Vezina Trophy, but NY Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin could make a late-season run.
In a recent loss to the Winnipeg Jets, NY Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin did himself no favors for himself in the race for the Vezina Trophy, allowing three goals on 26 shots. Meanwhile, Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck saved 38 out of 40 shots, good for a 0.950 save percentage, and once again proving he’s the front-runner in the race.
But Shesterkin is a former winner of the award, and he has, for the most part, put up some epic numbers lately. With almost a month to go in the season, Shesterkin could still close the gap against Hellebuyck and other legitimate Vezina contenders, but he must play mistake-free in the crease.
Luckily, those in the NHL universe have seen such play from Shesterkin in the past, as his Vezina-winning season in 2021-22 was one for the record books. That year, Shesterkin won 36 games, posted a league-best 0.935 save percentage, plus a minute 2.07 GAA. Over 70 percent of his appearances were quality starts that year and his ‘really bad starts’ mark sat at just four.
Igor Shesterkin can still make a run for the Vezina Trophy
This season, Shesterkin has looked average, or at least that’s the case in what we expect from the 28-year-old, who has 29 wins in 46 starts, a 2.60 GAA, plus a 0.912 save percentage. His cumulative numbers have steadily increased this season, and despite the occasional bad game, another great month would work wonders for Shesterkin.
Further, Hellebuyck could regress during his final starts of 2023-24, which could open this race right back up and allow the likes of Shesterkin, Thatcher Demko of the Vancouver Canucks, Jeremy Swayman of the Boston Bruins, and others to make their case for the award.
But Shesterkin could have all of the above names beaten, along with potential dark horse candidates like Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen of the Buffalo Sabres and even the Edmonton Oilers top netminder, Stuart Skinner. Let’s look at a few reasons why Shesterkin isn’t out of this competition yet.
Shesterkin may have enjoyed the best four weeks of any goaltender
Two of Igor Shesterkin’s previous three starts have not been high-quality, but let’s look at the month he had between February 12th and March 12th, when he logged a remarkable 8-1-1 record, posted three shutouts, a 0.956 save percentage, and a GAA of just 1.50.
He was also tied for second in wins that month with Ilya Samsonov, while only Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen won more games, leading the NHL in that span with nine. But nobody recorded three shutouts in those four weeks, and Shesterkin was also second in shots against at 340, once again trailing Luukkonen, who saw 368.
If Shesterkin records another epic four weeks like what we saw between February 12th and March 12th, starting now and ending it when the Rangers play their final game on April 15th, he will have a chance to unseat Hellebuyck.
It won’t be an easy endeavor, considering Hellebuyck’s sheer consistency this season. But when you look at the overall numbers, Shesterkin is just 0.11 points behind the Jets primary netminder in save percentage and 0.3 behind in GAA, so there is more than enough time to gain ground.
A former Vezina winner in their prime can go on and stay on a roll
During the first three weeks of 2021-22, Shesterkin suffered just one regulation loss to go with five wins and a pair of overtime losses. He also had a 0.943 save percentage, 15 goals allowed, and a shutout in that frame. Shesterkin showed us that year he could even sustain outrageous success for nearly three months.
Look back at what he accomplished between November 8th, 2021, and January 24th, 2022, when he helped the Rangers take 15 wins while sustaining just two losses and just 31 goals allowed. His 0.941 save percentage was less than a fraction of what he had in the first three weeks of the year, and it set the stage for his Vezina-winning campaign. Two more shutouts also helped, which gave him three on the year.
Shesterkin doesn’t have time for an epic two-and-a-half months of regular season play, with the final game coming in mid-April. But he can still put together one last month reminiscent of what we saw between October 14th and November 6th, 2021, and even his most recent four weeks of sensational play.
If Hellebuyck does the same thing, it’s hard to see Shesterkin winning the Vezina, but he will generate serious consideration.
It’s a good thing that the Rangers may not give Shesterkin much help
When a player in any sport wins a prestigious award, it’s typically not just the one player putting up epic numbers. Let’s go back to Connor Hellebuyck, whose Winnipeg Jets are tied with the sixth-lowest shots allowed through 68 games with 2,000, which equals 29.4 per contest.
It’s also worth pointing out that Hellebuyck’s epic numbers have come in the way of the Jets perennially possessing an outstanding defense-first hockey team. When Shesterkin won the Vezina in 2021-22, Jets backup Eric Comrie posted a 0.920 save percentage. Comrie hasn’t come close to the same success during his time with the Buffalo Sabres, and it’s a testament to how good Winnipeg is in the defensive zone.
Fast-forward to 2023-24, Laurent Brossoit is, through 18 appearances this season, putting up even better numbers than Hellebuyck, with a 0.927 save percentage and a 1.99 GAA, plus two shutouts. Winnipeg has helped Hellebuyck immensely, and if Brossoit logs seven more starts, they are a shoo-in to win the Jennings Trophy.
As for Shesterkin, he doesn’t have a great defensive team in the Rangers. Right now, they’re sitting 14th on the list in shots against with 2,031 through 69 contests, but they have allowed the 10th-highest number in the Corsi, with 3,278 at 5-on-5, and they have the 12th highest xGA at 142.6. But they also allowed the 10th lowest actual goals, tied with the Buffalo Sabres at 131.
You won’t see many general managers looking at advanced statistics, but with Shesterkin starting roughly two-thirds of the games this year, he’s a big reason this team has played better hockey defensively. If anyone looks at such stats, or if enough of them do, he might get even more serious consideration.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference and QuantHockey)