3 reasons the NY Rangers can fall into a major trap in Round 1
The NY Rangers may be the best team in hockey, but they are facing a Washington Capitals team looking to pull off a major upset.
Okay, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves for what could be a deceptive playoff series in the First Round between the New York Rangers and the Washington Capitals. From a statistical standpoint, it should be an easy win for the Blueshirts, who finished the 2023-24 season with 282 goals scored, good for sixth in the league. New York also finished with a plus-53 goal differential after allowing just 229 goals.
Then, you got the Capitals, who found the net just 220 times, or 2.68 goals per game. They finished 28th in the category, and they also ended the year outside the top 16 in goals allowed with 257. If you’re keeping track, the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Rangers are playing a team that ended the year with a minus-37. So, if you aren’t looking too deeply into this series or are only looking at basic numbers, it’s an easy win for the Rangers, right?
NY Rangers cannot afford to fall into a trap vs. the Capitals
If you even look remotely deeper into this upcoming series, you will also see all the makings of a potential trap series. For starters, we need to remember that the Capitals did enough to become one of those eight playoff teams. And if the trade deadline back in March told us anything, they made it clear that their season was over.
Or at least that was logical thinking nearly a month-and-a-half ago, but that wasn’t the case for a team that finished 11-8-2 following the deadline despite a minus-10 goal differential in that same span. Sure, it meant the Capitals suffered some blowout losses, but it also seemed like they won every close game they played in.
To be accurate, they won six of those 11 games by just one goal, but wow, talk about a team that’s never fazed when it’s crunch time. If the Caps keep it close, they will make this a series, but let’s discuss three other reasons why the Rangers can fall into a trap against Washington.
Washington’s goaltending is better than the credit it’s been given
Goaltender Charlie Lindgren will likely be in the net every time the Rangers face the Capitals in Round 1, and he won’t be easy to beat. A late-bloomer, Lindgren still has just 110 appearances in the eight years in which he’s played NHL games. Before his unprecedented season with the Capitals, Lindgren appeared in just 60 contests, winning 28 of them and posting a 0.906 save percentage with a 2.69 GAA and two shutouts.
Overall, these aren’t bad numbers, but they’re nothing worthy of a 1A or No. 1 goaltender. That changed in 2023-24 when he won 25 games in 50 appearances and logged a 0.911 save percentage, a 2.67 GAA, and six shutouts, proving to everyone he is a playoff-worthy goaltender.
He also won two of his three starts against the Rangers, shutting them out on December 9th in a game when he saved all 31 shots on goal. He allowed a grand total of four goals against the Blueshirts in the two subsequent contests, making 54 saves on 58 shot attempts. Do the math, and Lindgren had a 0.955 save percentage against the Rangers, saving 85 shots on 89 attempts.
Overall, the Rangers must figure out Lindgren if they’re not interested in the Presidents’ Trophy winner going one-and-done for two seasons in a row.
Alex Ovechkin has gotten hot at the right time of the season
Few knew what was wrong with Alex Ovechkin early and even heading into the middle of the season. In his first 43 games of 2023-24, Ovechkin scored just eight goals and logged a 5.4 shooting percentage. For context, that’s lower than even some defensemen who aren’t known for being two-way players. So it’s easy to justify that some may have thought the 38-year-old was finished and ultimately wouldn’t catch Wayne Gretzky in all-time goals scored.
But wow, did that change in the final 36 games when Ovechkin scored 23 times, good for 0.639 goals per game in that span. He was a key reason the Capitals stayed in the wild card and, at times, the top-three hunt in the Metro Division. It’s also important to note he did all this after the Caps moved one of their best scorers.
Sure, they were going to move Evgeny Kuznetsov, but losing Anthony Mantha didn’t help this team from a scoring standpoint, considering the year he was having. Or so we thought, as Ovechkin started taking over games, scoring 13 goals and contributing to another five, good for 18 points in those final 21 contests.
This isn’t saying Ovechkin putting up big numbers is what the Rangers must worry about. But his very presence and the fact he’s peaking at the right time means the Blueshirts must key on him because he’s either scoring or creating scoring chances for someone else.
The Caps haven’t made it easy for the Rangers at any point in 2023-24
We already talked about how much damage Charlie Lindgren did when he was in the net vs. the Rangers, but the Caps rarely made it easy for New York all season. We only saw the Rangers handle the Caps on December 27th in a 5-1 blowout win, but Darcy Kuemper was in the net that evening.
We won’t talk much about the Rangers shutout loss to the Caps when the two teams faced one another on December 9th, but the back-to-back on January 13th and 14th could foreshadow what we will see when the puck drops to kick off the series this weekend.
These two games featured a pair of hard-fought battles between the Caps and the Blueshirts, with the matchup on the 13th ending in a 3-2 comeback win over New York. The Rangers took the next game by a score of 2-1, fending off a potential comeback from Washington following T.J. Oshie’s goal in the second period.
So, as you can see from this slideshow, there is no way the Rangers can take the Capitals lightly. Doing so will certainly extend the Presidents’ Trophy winners’ losing streak another season, and the Rangers will be left wondering what could have been this postseason.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference)