3 significant X-Factors that will make or break the rest of the Rangers season
The New York Rangers continue to roll as we are now firmly entrenched in the most important stretch of the season, but there are still X-Factors that will make or break them.
The Rangers have been a model for success this season as they currently lead the NHL’s Metropolitan Division and sit third in the Eastern Conference standings with 75 points. Better yet, they are getting hot at the right time of the year, having won seven straight between January 27th and February 18th, with three of those wins being nail-biters in overtime.
New York remains in the top-10 in both goals scored (10th) and goals allowed (8th), and what’s even more amazing is the fact they have even more room to improve. If they can get better in areas like goaltending, for example, then the Rangers will be doing some damage not just down the stretch, but also in the playoffs.
But it’s also one of three X-Factors that can break this team across the final two months of what has been yet another outstanding season to date.
The Rangers goaltending must hold from now until the playoffs
Jonathan Quick continues to put up an impressive campaign in what is his 17th season in the NHL. At 38, Quick has a 13-4-2 record, a 0.917 save percentage, two shutouts, a 2.36 GAA, and just one really bad start. However, his quality starts percentage of 0.474 is a cause for concern, as it shows us that he’s also struggled more than his cumulative numbers show.
Igor Shesterkin continues to be the primary goaltender, but the former Vezina recipient is still struggling with a 0.901 save percentage, a 2.85 GAA, just one shutout, and a 0.543 quality starts percentage. These numbers aren’t horrible, but we have come to expect so much more from Shesterkin. Especially when you factor in his eight really bad starts, which is already a career-high.
Seeing Shesterkin return to his Vezina-winning ways is the ideal turnaround, even if that may not be plausible just yet. If he and Quick can gain some consistency from now until the end of April, the Rangers should have a top seed locked up.
New York’s 5-on-5 play isn’t as strong as it should be
When you look at the Rangers statistics compared to the rest of the league, they are predictably stellar, with 75 points compared to the NHL average of 61, 184 goals for, and just 154 allowed are a few of many outstanding stat lines we can point to. But if this team wants to maximize its chances of a top seed beyond just improving its goaltending, they need to start dominating at 5-on-5.
Their overall shooting and save percentage is a hair under the NHL average; ditto for their expected and actual goals for, which sit at 112.1 and 112, respectively, over the averages of 111.6 and 110. New York’s defense is playing well enough to sit a few expected goals better than the league average, with an xGA of 107.9. But as implied previously, their inconsistent goaltenders have allowed 112 through February 19th, two above the league average of 110.
The same goes for their overall Corsi For Percentage, Scoring Chances For Percentage, and High-Danger Chances For Percentage, with each of which falling between 49.8 and 51.5 percent. Not bad numbers, but a team of the Rangers caliber must show they can put up more than just solid, but unspectacular play in all situations, especially down the stretch.
Transactions near or at the trade deadline will be important
There are several solid trade options out there for the Rangers, like Adam Henrique. But if someone like Henrique isn’t available, New York needs someone with two-way capability who can help take even more pressure off of Shesterkin and Quick, and one who can also help the team overachieve at 5-on-5.
Given the way New York has fallen short over the past two seasons, they can’t sit there and do nothing as the deadline approaches. The front office must show this fan base they are willing to reach a place they haven’t been to since 1994, so making a splash on or before March 8th will fuel more than just the team.
Whether it involves getting a forward like Henrique, a solid defenseman like David Savard, or even a potential scorer like Anthony Duclair, the Rangers must do something to take that next step.
New York is on pace for a 112-point season, and just a few slip-ups from the Boston Bruins or the Florida Panthers could put this team in position to snag the top overall seed in the East. So not only would a big trade help this team and ignite the fan base, it would also involve adding a player that could have otherwise helped the aforementioned teams, or even the surging Carolina Hurricanes.
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(Statistics provided by Hockey-Reference as of February 19th)