New York Rangers: Rick Nash and Michael Grabner could bring back a lot
Instead of contending, the New York Rangers appear to be a playoff bubble team. Though the February 26 trade deadline is a ways away, New York could wind up as sellers for the first time in more than a decade.
After several win-now moves over the last few seasons, the Rangers could benefit from restocking their cupboard. Pending unrestricted free agents Rick Nash and Michael Grabner are their prime trade chips if they go that route.
Do Nash and Grabner need to turn red hot in order to make them worth dealing, though? Probably not. Both veterans have well-established values at this point.
But just to be on the safe side, let’s take a look at some of the best hauls teams have landed over the past 10 deadlines.
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How hot were they
To keep things simple, I’m going to focus on forwards dealt at or near the trade deadline and track their scoring in the 20 games leading up to the deal.
A few things are readily apparent. First, almost every single significant forward brought back a second round pick or something better. Second, big names like Jarome Iginla and Marian Hossa have no problem snagging first round picks even as expiring contracts.
Finally, streaks appear to play little to no part in finding a decent deal. In fairness, very few red-hot scorers have changed hands at the deadline over the last decade.
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Thomas Vanek: A case study
Thomas Vanek provides an interesting example of how different factors affect trade value. Buffalo dealt the pending unrestricted free agent to the Islanders early in the 13-14 season rather than attempting to extend him. The Islanders gave up a first, a second, and Matt Moulson.
Buffalo turned around and flipped Moulson for another two second rounders at the deadline.
Meanwhile, the Islanders fell out of the race and put Vanek back on the market. Vanek played at almost a point-per-game pace over his last 20 games with them, yet they managed only a second rounder and a sub-par prospect for Vanek.
Ultimately, the Islanders couldn’t re-sign Vanek and other teams knew it. Despite Vanek posting a ton of points, his production did little to offset the Islanders’ perceived lack of leverage.
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Other observations
Players with as few as seven points in their last 20 games commanded a first-round pick. Teams pay heavily if they think a player can put them over the top, regardless of recent production.
This plays especially true with specialists. Paul Gaustad and Antoine Vermette drew first round picks almost entirely thanks to their faceoff prowess. The two-way reputations of Martin Hanzal and Martin Erat appear to provide a similar boost.
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What it means for Nash and Grabner
Unless Jeff Gorton heavily misplays his hand, Rick Nash is a lock to garner at least one first round pick or major prospect. A 35-year-old Jarome Iginla only willing to waive his no-trade clause for Pittsburgh scored a first rounder. A 33-year-old Nash should have no problem doing at least that well.
Gorton needs to force teams to surrender a first rounder from the reportedly loaded 2018 draft, though. He can’t allow Nash suitors substitute a pick from a later year without heavily sweetening the pot.
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The picture isn’t quite as clear with Michael Grabner. Though he isn’t a huge name, he offers a very unique speed threat. If the Rangers dangle him, does Grabner’s skating push his value above just his goal totals?
Grabner is clearly worth more than a single second rounder, but how much more depends on Gorton, not a potential streak.