New York Rangers: What’s needed to make the playoffs
By Dan Carrozzi
The New York Rangers are currently sitting in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. What will they need to do the rest of the season in order to play in the tournament in the spring?
The New York Rangers have had a roller coaster start to their season. The team stumbled to a dismal 3-7-2 start, and talk of tanking began to circulate. They then ripped off a six game winning streak, bringing the team above the .500 mark and back into the playoff race.
Including that six game winning streak, the team has gone 16-6-2 since and currently sport a 19-13-4 record, good for 42 points. This mark has them in fourth place in the incredibly competitive Metropolitan Division, which also lands them in the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.
Given their play this season and especially as of late, the team’s grip on that potential postseason berth appears to be tenuous. We’re going to take a look at what kind of record and pace the Rangers will have to maintain in order to likely make the playoffs.
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Keeping Pace with the Rest
It is difficult to predict exactly how many points and in what permutation a team may need them in order to qualify for the playoffs. Last season, for instance, the Toronto Maple Leafs secured the eighth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 95 points.
The last few seasons have seen similar cutoffs, around 93-98 points, so for the sake of argument we’ll use that 95 point mark as the Rangers’ objective.
The Rangers secured the first wild card spot in the 2017 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the same position they occupy now, on the strength of 102 points (48-28-6 record). If the team were to maintain their current pace, 42 points through 36 games, they would end the regular season with 96 points (rounded up).
Therefore, using that 95 point mark, if the team holds course they will likely just barely qualify for the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Furthermore, if the team keeps their recent torrid pace, (34 points in 24 games, a 116 point pace over a full season), they would end the regular season with 107 points. Interestingly enough this still would not have been enough last season to earn third place in the division. However, it may be enough to do so this season.
Looking at more recent results, if the team maintains its pace over the last 10 games (12 points, 5-3-2 record) they would have 97 points at the end of the season. Again, this would likely be enough to land them in the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference.
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The Road Ahead
Like last season, the Metropolitan Division is much stronger and more competitive than their Atlantic Division counterparts this season. As such, it would not be surprising to see five Metropolitan Division teams to the postseason.
By virtue of having to play against teams in their own division more often, the Rangers’ road to the playoffs is immediately more difficult by default.
However, looking at the team’s schedule for the rest of the season, the Rangers are set to play 21 of their remaining 46 games against teams currently in a playoff position.
To reach the required 95 points, the Rangers would have to earn 53 points over their remaining 46 games. Therefore, winning all 25 games against current non-playoff teams will get them most of the way there (50 points).
The team will naturally win some games against their opponents currently in a playoff position and lose some to those who are not. However, their schedule is not overwhelmingly difficult even with the amount of intra-divisional games remaining (16).
Another wrinkle to the schedule is how often the team plays back-to-back games or plays an opponent on the second leg of a back-to-back set.
So the games where rest matters (for whatever reason) are the ones where tired home teams play rested road teams, so let's look at those. pic.twitter.com/J366LvoofA
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) June 26, 2017
(Courtesy of Micah Blake McCurdy of Hockeyviz.com, “tired” means a team played the previous night and “rested” means a team did not.)
As seen above, the Rangers essentially even out in terms of schedule advantage involving back-to-back games. Therefore the Rangers can’t rely on the schedule makers to potentially earn points easier.
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Playoffs? You kidding me, playoffs?
From a broad perspective, the Rangers look like they will compete for the Stanley Cup for the 12th time in the last 13 seasons.
Unfortunately, one area in which the ‘eye test’ and advanced statistics agree is that the Rangers have not been playing very well lately. In fact, the team has been playing rather poorly the entire season, regardless of what their record is/was at the time.
However, a more in-depth investigation into the team and their performance from an advanced statistics point of view is the subject for another post altogether. That being said, even if the team reaches the playoffs, it is likely they will flame out early as they have the previous two postseasons.
With that in mind, it is in the organization’s best interest that they properly assess the team and make the proper moves that will benefit the team the most in the long term. This may mean strategically missing the playoffs via trading assets at the trade deadline.
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While this would be disappointing in the short term, especially considering that Henrik Lundqvist isn’t getting any younger, it may ultimately be what’s best for the franchise if they are to capture the Stanley Cup in the near future.
(Schedule and records information courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com)