Adam Fox (28) and Igor Shesterkin (31 in December) are either the best or nearly the best at what they do at their position, and if the New York Rangers are committed to retooling as opposed to rebuilding, there needs to be a sense of urgency this summer to field a competitive team worthy of making the playoffs.
Fox's reputation around the league is seemingly at an all-time low, but the metrics and on-ice performance can't be denied. The same can be said of Igor, and look no further than how he matched up vs. the goaltenders who were finalists for the Vezina this year.
If the Rangers were truly rebuilding, there's a strong argument to be made for selling both off for as high a return as possible, but that doesn't appear to be the case. And with both remaining in town, there is no reason to slow walk a return to contention.
The Rangers went to the Eastern Conference Final in 2024 as a Presidents Trophy winning squad, and have missed the playoffs the last two seasons. With a weak unrestricted free agency market, minimal trade assets, and because there is a low chance of a player being available at No. 5 who can be a major needle mover in the next three years, Chris Drury needs to be bold by weaponizing an offer sheet in order to try and make the most out of his current team.
The Rangers need to be bold one way or another
New York has made too many contending moves in recent years to try and slow walk this process, and if they were going to unravel everything there would have been signs of that by now. Sacrificing drafts picks is always a risk, but it is something that the team was able to successfully leverage into a Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2014.
The Rangers traded for J.T. Miller two deadlines ago, signed Vladislav Gavrikov this past summer, and just brought in Mike Sullivan to be the head coach. You don't do those things, while having Fox and Shesterkin on the roster, and essentially take a roll the dice strategy.
The boldest decision the Blueshirts could make would be submitting an offer sheet in excess of $11,939,167 which would cost them a 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030 first round pick. While that is a tough pill to swallow, if the Rangers are contending in the manner that they should, those would be late first round picks for players who have less overall star potential.
If the Rangers flopped and those picks were early in the draft, it would suck... but at that point Drury would be fired and everything would be burned down. In that process, the Rangers would get back the needed draft capital by trading Fox, Shesterkin, Gavrikov, and so on in order to build around a new core that would likely be led by Gabe Perreault. This whole strategy hinges on maximizing the existing players in place, a perfectly reasonable strategy, and making the most out of cap space that isn't really spoken for at this point.
Pavel Dorofeyev is the best choice for this strategy
The Rangers' biggest need going forward is young dynamic centers, and you'd think that would mean submitting an offer sheet for Leo Carlsson of the Anaheim Ducks. He is a tremendously talented player at age 21, but the Ducks have all the cap space they need to match an offer sheet if the young center signed the Rangers offer.
The Vegas Golden Knights, on the other hand, are in a significant financial bind that makes them susceptible to such an offer. Vegas has 16 players under contract for next season and just $4.625 million in projected space.
The current crop of free agents include Reilly Smith, Brandon Saad, Colton Sissons, Cole Smith, Rasmus Andersson, Jeremy Lauzon, Ben Hutton, Akira Schmid, and the aforementioned Pavel Dorofeyev who is currently leading the playoffs in goal scoring.
If Vegas wants to keep Dorofeyev, they only have a couple of options when it comes to freeing up the needed space, and there's still no guarantee they can free up enough space in the process.
- William Karlsson has a $5.9 million cap hit for one more season and has a 10-team NTC
- Ivan Barbashev has a $5 million cap hit for two more seasons and has a 5-team NTC
- Braden McNabb has a $3.65 million cap hit for two more seasons and has a 5-team NTC
- Adin Hill has a $6.25 million cap hit for four more season and has a 10-team NTC
All of the other big name players have stricter no trade or no move protection, and are players Vegas shouldn't be interested in moving anyway. Tomas Hertl is another name they might want to try and offload, but that could get tricky based on his modified NTC, and his declining production.
Based on these factors, if the Rangers see Dorofeyev as someone who will be 26 in October and has posted 35 and 37 goals in back to back seasons while skating under 16:32 and 17:36 per game, it is easy to project out what he could be in New York with significantly more minutes and opportunities.
The Rangers currently have Perreault, Will Cuylle, and Tye Kartye as the top three options on their depth chart on the left wing, and the right wing is led by Lafrenière and followed by Conor Sheary, Jaroslav Chmelař, and Taylor Raddysh.
Dorofeyev would give the team a much needed additional top six scorer, and would also take some pressure of Perreault as he continues to develop and adjust to the league next season in his sophomore year.
Dorofeyev feels like perfect player to try and replace traded All-Star
While the prospect of paying Dorofeyev $12 million or more seems drastic, his underlying numbers tell an interesting story that suggest he's only scratching the surface of his potential.
This past season Dorofeyev had a 54.39 GF%, a 55.24 CF%, and a 56.12 xGF% per Evolving-Hockey. The year prior that slash line include a 52.4 GF%, a 54.24 CF%, and a 57.71 xGF%. Artemi Panarin posted a 53.0 GF%, a 53.94 CF%, and a 51.24 xGF% with the Rangers this year, and a 52.38 GF%, a 53.54 CF%, and a 50.43 xGF% the year before that.
In terms of rate stats, Dorofeyev generated 2.66 points per 60 this season, and 2.30 points per 60 the year before that. Panarin's marks include a 3.35 points per 60 with the Rangers this season, and a 3.14 points per 60 the year prior.
Panarin is a much better playmaker, but if you look at just goals Dorofeyev's mark of 1.54 and 1.55 in consecutive years eclipses Panarin's 1.05 and 1.41 respectively. Panarin is the more established player, but there's ever reason to believe that Dorofeyev is on his way to being a point per game scorer, and worthy of the massive contract that comes along with that.
Rangers in top position to make a tough to beat offer
The key to success in this area would be offering a contract that other teams can't. As things stand, only 10 teams are projected to have more cap space this summer than New York. That includes Pittsburgh, San Jose, Anaheim, Chicago, Philadelphia, Columbus, Washington, Detroit, Seattle, and Nashville. Many teams on this list have business to take care of themselves, are unlikely to take such a risky approach, or just don't feel like a good fit for Dorofeyev.
The key to a successful offer sheet does involve money, but the player needs to see a pathway to contention, and like the market. It is fair to say that the Rangers would be an attractive fit for Dorofeyev beyond the money, and that's what puts them in to try such a maneuver.
It remains to be seen if the Rangers will go down this road, but it truly feels like this is the best action they can take. While Jason Robertson is also an RFA one year away from UFA status that would check a lot of boxes, given the fact that he was snubbed from Team USA... fair to say that he's not someone Sullivan would be interested in having on his team.
Offer sheets remain a rarity in the league, but if the Rangers are truly serious about turning the corner, Drury better be considering this strategy this summer.
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